The 2019-20 NHL season kicks off on Wednesday, Oct. 2 and there's plenty to unpack before the puck drops in St. Louis.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are the Stanley Cup Favorites at 7-1 while the Ottawa Senators come into the season with the highest odds (250-1) and lowest season point total (68.5).
What should bettors know about each team heading into the new campaign? Which teams are worth an investment? Who should you be prepared to fade in the early part of the season?
Check out our betting preview for all 31 NHL teams and Projected Standings below:
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Ottawa Senators
- Stanley Cup Odds: 250-1
- Season Point Total: 68.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +1000, No -10000
Every league needs a laughingstock and that title currently belongs to the Ottawa Senators. The on-ice product is bad, but the off-ice situation is even worse. Owner Eugene Melnyk is no good, and it's hard to believe he's got the fans' best intentions at heart.
This is a forward-looking preview, so it's no use spilling ink over the players that Ottawa dealt away, but the current roster is filled with flaws — though there's some reason for optimism.
Brady Tkachuk is front-and-center as the team's best asset. The 20-year-old put up a stellar rookie campaign and did so in somewhat limited playing time. Tkachuk's supporting cast up front won't ever be confused with an All-Star team, but Collin White is a bonafide top-six center and Anthony Duclair has shown he can be a positive-impact player.
Thomas Chabot just re-upped on a long-term deal and he's got the makings of a franchise-cornerstone defenseman, but outside of the 22-year-old it's slim pickings on the blue line.
How cautious the Senators are in bringing along their prized prospects like Drake Batherson, Erik Brannstrom and Alex Formenton will play a big role in how successful this team will be in 2019-20.
I actually think the Senators have a chance to beat their projected total, but I hate playing overs on a team that is likely going to be a seller at the trade deadline.
Detroit Red Wings
- Stanley Cup Odds: 100-1
- Season Point Total: 74.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +750, No -2000
The Red Wings have more talent on their roster than the Senators but I don't know if that's a good thing considering that a full-on tank would do the Wings more good than a middling season.
Dylan Larkin is Detroit's best player and he's got some help at the top of the lineup. Tyler Bertuzzi, Andreas Athanasiou and Anthony Mantha give Detroit a little bit of scoring punch, but beyond them things turn bleak.
The defense is the real eyesore here, as there is nobody that really shines. Filip Hronek is a good enough player, but asking him to be the No. 1 guy is unfair. Detroit's defense is probably the worst unit in the league.
Jimmy Howard will be back in goal for his 14th season in Detroit. I'm not going to waste much time on the 35-year-old other than saying he's been a pretty steady goalie for much of his career and that's what I'm projecting we'll see in 2019-20.
I think the Wings are appropriately priced heading into the season.
Los Angeles Kings
- Stanley Cup Odds: 80-1
- Season Point Total: 75.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +410, No -667
You could lump the Los Angeles Kings in with the Senators and Red Wings, but I think Ottawa and Detroit are in a different phase of their respective rebuilds compared to Los Angeles.
While the Wings and Senators are already at the bottom, the Kings will need to work hard to tear it down to get there. Los Angeles is a clear tanking candidate and the Kings will try to get what they can for players like Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli and perhaps Drew Doughty and/or Anze Kopitar, though their contracts make it very unlikely the latter two will be moved.
A complete tank-job may be tough for Los Angeles, though, as there are some players who could carry the Kings to results if they find their form. The Kings also happen to play in the weakest division, so there's a chance they could just be less bad than other teams in their circuit.
Goaltending will go a long way in determining just how poor the Kings are, as Jonathan Quick struggled through an injury-riddled season in 2018-19, posting a .889 save percentage at 5-on-5 and a -23.4 Goals Saved Above Average.
The Kings will need their No. 1 goalie to exceed expectations if they have any shot at grabbing an unexpected playoff berth and the netminder that's likelier to do that is Jack Campbell. The 27-year-old first-round pick finally showed up in 2018-19, posting a .934 5-on-5 save percentage and a +6.1 Goals Saved Above Average.
If Quick and Campbell do big things and the Kings get their top guys to click, then there's a chance the Kings could luck their way into the playoff mix.
That is unlikely, though.
Anaheim Ducks
Stanley Cup Odds: 80-1
Season Point Total: 83.5
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +230, No -334
Now this is a longshot I can get behind.
The Anaheim Ducks were bad last year, but a coaching change, a healthy roster and the best goaltender in the NHL should give the Ducks a puncher's chance in the league's weakest division.
Goaltending is tough to project and relying on a goalie to be the main vehicle to get a bet to the window is risky, but John Gibson may be the exception to the rule.
The 26-year-old netminder boasts a +45.04 Goals Saved Above Average over the last three seasons, the second-highest mark in the NHL.
Anaheim also has the luxury of having one of the league's strongest backup goalies in Ryan Miller, who has been terrific in a No. 2 role behind Gibson. If Gibson gets injured or loses his way, the Ducks could do a lot worse than having Miller step in.
Gibson is clearly the star at The Pond, but there are a few other reasons to be optimistic about Anaheim.
The Ducks have some established pizzazz up front with Ryan Getzlaf, Rickard Rakell and Jakob Silfverberg, but the youngsters are the key.
Ondrej Kase looks like he's about to vault himself into a top-line role and Max Jones, Max Comtois, Troy Terry and Sam Steel all have high ceilings. Whether any, all or some of Anaheim's bright young players realize some of their potential will go a long way into deciding if this team can overachieve.
Prior to 2018-19, Anaheim's defense looked like it was on its way to growing into a stable unit. Unfortunately, Hampus Lindholm, Cam Fowler and Josh Manson endured up-and-down seasons and will each need to bounce back to help turn the Ducks around. It's worth remembering that with Gibson behind them, Anaheim's defense just needs to be average to keep them afloat.
I may be too high on a team that finished second-to-last with a 45.3 xG%, but I'm confident that new head coach Dallas Eakins can help sort some of the Ducks' systemic issues. Randy Carlyle coached this team into the ground over the past couple of seasons and any change in strategy should be a plus.
Finally, it's hard to imagine the Ducks won't get a little bit luckier in terms of injury luck this season. No team was hit harder by the injury bug over the past two seasons than Anaheim and some better health should provide a much-needed boost.
There's a lot that could go wrong here. Gibson may struggle. The youngsters may not produce. The defense could continue to flail. Maybe Eakins isn't the guy. Longshots will have more cons than pros, but the number is too good to pass up not to take a flier on the Ducks. There are some triple-digit Stanley Cup odds floating around the market, but the most-widely available number is 80-1.
Even with their blemishes, I'm confident enough that the Ducks have better than a 1.2% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
At 80-1 that's all you need.
Buffalo Sabres
Stanley Cup Odds: 66-1
Season Point Total: 81.5
Odds to Make Playoffs Yes +260, No -371
The Buffalo Sabres are taking longer than expected to become relevant, and last season was a cautionary tale of hyping teams up just because they were bad for so long and made some moves that signaled they thought they were ready to contend.
The top six looks in decent shape, Rasmus Dahlin looks to be a cornerstone piece on defense and the Sabres made a couple of nimble additions over the past six months in Marcus Johansson, Colin Miller and Brandon Montour.
There's enough randomness in the NHL that you could make a case to take a flier almost any team and there's certainly some interesting pieces in Buffalo that I wouldn't call anybody crazy for giving them a twirl, but there are two big red flags with investing in the Sabres.
The first, which is out of their control, is that they play in the Atlantic Division, which is easily the toughest in the NHL. Not only do the Sabres need to navigate a schedule that sees them play a dozen games against the Lightning, Maple Leafs and Bruins, but they also need to out-pace the Panthers and/or the Canadiens to qualify for the postseason. It's hard to see them doing that.
Secondly, the Sabres are not strong in goal. Buffalo made a wonky decision by handing out a hefty contract to Carter Hutton, a career backup who was coming off an outlier performance with the Blues, with the hopes that he would stabilize things in net.
That didn't work out and Linus Ullmark (-5.11 Goals Saved Above Average) hasn't shown anything that would make you believe he's about to challenge for the position.
The Sabres seem destined for somewhere between 78 and 85 points, so I don't think there's anything to get enthused about here.
Columbus Blue Jackets
- Stanley Cup Odds: 50-1
- Season Point Total: 85.5
- Odds to Make the Playoffs: +210, No -286
I don’t think there’s much value on Columbus in the preseason market, but I do think they will be underrated on a game-to-game basis, especially in the early part of the season as I expect bettors will be looking to fade the Blue Jackets from the get-go.
Part of growing as a bettor is learning to parse through information and ignore the noise. It seems like casual hockey fans and the media have given the Blue Jackets a death sentence after they lost Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovksy and Matt Duchene to free agency.
If you look at the season from a big-picture point of view, then yes, the Jackets will likely take a step back in ’19-20. But they aren’t as bad as the sentiment — and betting market — seems to be treating them.
Columbus lacks elite talent up front, but there’s no reason to panic about this group of forwards. Cam Atkinson and Pierre-Luc Dubois may be asked to do more than they are capable of, but Columbus is three-lines deep and any of Gustav Nyquist, Josh Anderson and Oliver Bjorkstrand can provide some scoring pop.
But the reason I am a little more bullish than most on Columbus is its defense. Seth Jones, Zach Werenski, Ryan Murray and David Savard will gobble the minutes on the blue line, but the third pairing of Dean Kukan and Markus Nutivaara shouldn’t sink the ship, either. This group grades out to be a top-10 unit in the league and that should help provide some cover for the team’s biggest issue: goaltending.
Things may look desperate on the other end of the ice as the Jackets decided not to bring in a replacement for Bobrovsky, rather opting to hand the keys to Joonas Korpisalo, who has not set the world on fire in 90 NHL games, and Elvis Merzlikins, a 2014 third-round pick who has spent the last six seasons playing in the Swiss National League. The 25-year-old Latvian has posted encouraging numbers in Switzerland, but there’s no way anybody can be confident projecting how well he’ll play in the NHL.
Goaltending is extremely hard to project (you’ll hear me say that a lot over the next six months), so it’s entirely possible that Korpisalo or Merzlikins put up good results, but like with the Wild, just average goaltending could be good enough for a team that figures to be among the stingiest in the NHL.
Last season, the Blue Jackets ranked in the top 10 in limiting high-quality scoring chances and with their goaltending situation being what it is, I would expect head coach John Tortorella — already a conservative coach — to double down on his defense-first style. A conservative approach and a strong defense should turn a lot of Blue Jackets games into coin flips.
I’m not saying you should bet the Blue Jackets every game to start the season — everything comes down to price in betting — but the current state of the market leads me to believe that Columbus will be undervalued on a game-to-game basis in the early going.
Minnesota Wild
- Stanley Cup Odds: 50-1
- Season Point Total: 88.5
- Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes +185, No -251
The Wild are coming off a disappointing season and the narrative around the team is that they will be near the basement of the Central in 2019-20. That's fine — off-ice hoopla often drives up betting value and I think that is what's happening here.
In fact, I was talking about this bet with a few hockey fans and bettors earlier in the offseason and they began to poke holes in it. The Central is a brutal division. There's no star power. Devan Dubnyk hasn't been great in goal. The Wild averaged 2.12 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in 2018-19, the fifth-worst mark in the league. The list is long, but so are the odds.
If you're betting a longshot, you should be well aware that the bet will almost certainly lose. In fact, at 50-1 you just need the Wild to have above a 2% chance of winning the Central to see value in this bet.
The Wild aren't dripping with name-brand talent, but Minnesota has depth up front and on the blue line. Eric Staal, Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise, Jason Zucker, Kevin Fiala and Mats Zuccarello won't set the world on fire, but they are positive-impact players who can carry a scoring load.
It will certainly be a production-by-committee approach for the Wild, but that strategy can work especially with the group Minnesota has on the back-end. Ryan Suter, Matt Dumba, Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin give the Wild two of the strongest defense pairs in the league and that, in theory, should help lighten the load on the offense. I say "in theory" because we need to talk about the goaltending.
Despite playing behind one of the best defenses in the league, Devan Dubnyk has been pretty poor for Minnesota over the past two seasons. The 33-year-old has -26.7 Goals Saved Above Average since the beginning of the 2017-18 season and his backup, Alex Stalock, hasn't shown he can handle the load if Dubnyk falters.
Dubnyk had the highest expected save perecentage (xSV%) at 5-on-5 last season, so the Wild made life easy on him. If the veteran goaltender can produce at an average level, the Wild are live.
In fact, backing Minnesota to win the Central Division at 50-1 is my favorite future still in the market heading into the season.
It's also worth noting that the price on the Wild varies from sportsbook to sportsbook, so please shop around. There are some shops that have the Wild as low as 14-1 (FanDuel) to win the Central. Others (PointsBet, William Hill) have them as high as 50-1. I'd be comfortable betting this prop at any number better than 40-1 (2.5% implied probability).
Vancouver Canucks
- Stanley Cup Odds: 45-1
- Season Point Total: 85.5
- Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes +185, No -251
There's plenty to be excited about in Vancouver, but 45-1 is way too short for a team with this many holes. There is a lot of young talent, but there are just as many question marks.
Oftentimes, teams with emerging, young stars are overhyped. Casual bettors and media narratives tend to hyper-focus on the individual players rather than the big picture. Vancouver can definitely overachieve and make a surprising playoff run — the Canucks are in the right division for that and it happens every season in the NHL — but it's not likely. There's a big difference between could make the playoffs and should make the playoffs.
Vancouver has missed the postseason the past four seasons and hasn't won a playoff series since its run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2010-11.
Elias Petterson was a revelation in his rookie season. The 20-year-old Swede looks every part a franchise-changing talent and he'll center a legitimate No. 1 line, flanked by Brock Boeser.
Importantly, the Canucks surrounded Petterson and Boeser with some proven positive-impact players. J.T. Miller and Micheal Ferland aren't first-line players on great teams, but they will do the trick on a team looking to improve on a season that saw them finish dead last in xGF per 60 minutes.
Petterson, Boeser, Ferland, Miller and Bo Horvat will need to stay healthy and produce consistently because there's very little depth behind them.
The Canucks do have an emerging young star on defense, as well. Quinn Hughes looks like he's about to step into a big role for Travis Green. Hughes was sensational throughout his college career and looked like he belonged in his five-game stint at the end of last season.
Hughes will be the talisman on a new-look defense for the Canucks. Vancouver brought in Tyler Myers and Jordie Benn in the offseason and while neither of them are top-pair rearguards, they are effective in the right role.
Like with the forwards, depth is the issue on defense and if Hughes isn't able to grab his role with two hands, there could be issues on the back end.
The good news is that the Canucks can be confident in their goaltender, Jacob Markstrom. The 29-year-old Swede has quietly emerged as an effective goaltender and posted a +13.3 Goals Saved Above Average on a bad team in '18-19. If Markstrom gives the Canucks that kind of dependability in goal again this season, they could make things interesting.
At a longer price, the Canucks would be a lot more enticing. Unfortunately, there's no reason to get involved in this team at these prices.
Edmonton Oilers
- Stanley Cup Odds: 40-1
- Season Point Total: 82.5
- Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes +275, No -400
If the NHL had a little more NBA in its DNA, Connor McDavid would be long gone from Edmonton. But alas, McDavid is still doing his thing in The Big E.
The fact that the team with the league's best player has an over/under set at 82.5 is frighteningly bad. Just think about Sidney Crosby in Pittsburgh. It didn't take long for the Penguins to surround Crosby with the tools to succeed and he's repaid them to the tune of three Stanley Cups.
Edmonton had the opportunity to reach similar heights, but instead squandered away Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle amidst a storm of other horrible personnel moves.
Even though he plays with one of the best players in the league in Leon Draisatl, there's very little support for McDavid on this roster. Sure, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is an effective second-line center, but outside of McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins there are, quite literally, no more top-six caliber players. It's mesmerizing, actually.
As barren as the forward group is, the defense is worse because there's no real shining light. Darnell Nurse and Oscar Klefbom are fine, but neither are top-pair defenseman. The rest of the unit leaves a lot to be desired, as well.
Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith will split the duties in goal and that tandem doesn't inspire much confidence. For the Oilers to have an outside chance at the playoffs, one of — or likely both — goalies will need to outperform expectations.
All in all, the Oilers' Stanley Cup price is buoyed by 'The McDavid Effect' and I'd argue they should be much, much closer to 100-1 than 40-1.
Chicago Blackhawks
- Stanley Cup Odds: 40-1
- Season Point Total: 91.5
- Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes +210, No -286
The Chicago Blackhawks were a funky bunch in '18-19. Patrick Kane put up a career-high 110 points, Jonathan Toews did his thing and Alex DeBrincat emerged as the next star at the MadHouse on Madison.
Dylan Strome will slot in behind Toews and could latch on with Brandon Saad and Andrew Shaw to create a decent, but unspectacular second line. It goes off a cliff from there, though, as Chicago lacks anything in the form of bottom-six depth.
Most importantly the Blackhawks will need to improve in their own end of the ice. The Hawks had the worst defense in the NHL in terms of xG in 2018-19, allowing 2.68 xGA per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
The arrival of Calvin de Haan and Olli Maata should negate some defensive deficiencies, but this looks like a bottom-10 defense on paper.
That could be fine if the goaltending plays up to its potential, though. When he was healthy, Corey Crawford was one of the best goaltenders in the NHL and Robin Lehner was nominated for the Vezina Trophy for his play with the Islanders last season, so there's a chance these two netminders combine to carry this team beyond expectations.
The more likely scenario is that the Blackhawks hang around for most of the season before giving way in the league's deepest division.
Be sure to look around, but under 91.5 points seems like a sound investment on a mediocre team in a brutal division.
Arizona Coyotes
- Stanley Cup Odds: 40-1
- Season Point Total: 87.5
- Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes +113, No -152
I invested in the Coyotes at 100-1 in 2018-19 and it was a fun ride. Arizona was quietly one of the league's pleasant surprises, staying in the playoff race all season long despite a rash of injuries. In the end, the 'Yotes finished with 86 points, four tallies shy of the postseason. It was their best season in a half a decade.
Quiet surprises rarely go unnoticed by bookmakers and the adjustment on the Coyotes from last season to this year is pretty drastic and I must admit I'm a little perplexed by these odds.
Even with the addition of Phil Kessel, the Coyotes lineup reads like a bunch of second- and third-line players. There's not much to hate about it, but where's the glamour?
The reason I was so bullish on Arizona last season was that I hold goaltender Antti Raanta in pretty high regard. Unfortunately, Raanta was hurt for much of the season. That opened the door for Darcy Kuemper to come in and the 29-year-old took advantage by posting a .925 save percentage to go along with a +11.5 Goals Saved Above Average.
Kuemper had a pretty easy workload — he had the eighth-highest expected save percentage in the NHL — but he was solid and kept Arizona relevant.
Even with solid goaltending and good team defense, this is a massive adjustment for a team that projects to be mediocre. That being said, because they play in the Pacific Division, I don't see much value in fading the Coyotes.
Philadelphia Flyers
- Stanley Cup Odds: 35-1
- Season Point Total: 90.5
- Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes +105, No -136
The Flyers have a bit of boom-or-bust to them in 2019-20 because of their situation in goal.
Philadelphia committed to the Carter Hart Experience midway through last season and the rookie netminder looked decent, although he didn't face a difficult workload in terms of expected save percentage. Still, a rookie goaltender putting up a .917 save percentage is pretty impressive.
Goaltending is probably the most combustible position in sports and it's anybody's guess whether or not the 21-year-old Hart is ready to be a No. 1 goalie in Philadelphia. He will almost certainly need to be the guy, too, since Brian Elliott doesn't project to provide much cover for the youngster.
The good news is that the Flyers still have firepower up front and the addition of Kevin Hayes as a second-line center should provide balance to the top of the lineup.
Philadelphia's defense also has a bit of risk-reward to it, too. Philadelphia will expect — and need — big seasons out of Ivan Provorov and Travis Sanheim, two defensemen about to enter their prime, as well as Shayne Gostisbehere. Gostisbehere's career has been all over the place as he's shown glimpses of a future Norris Trophy winner and glimpses of a defenseman chasing the game.
There's no way I am investing in a team handing the keys over to a rookie goaltender. Moving on.
New York Rangers
- Stanley Cup Odds: 35-1
- Season Point Total: 89.5
- Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes +140, No -182
The Rangers are putting the finishing touches on a remarkably fast rebuild and are a step closer to returning to contender status thanks to a boisterous summer that saw them acquire top-pair defenseman Jacob Trouba, draft blue-chip forward Kaapo Kakko and then sign the biggest prize in free agency, Artemi Panarin.
That being said, the hype is a little too high on the Rangers heading into the new season.
Despite the arrival of Kakko and Panarin, the Rangers lack depth up front. The high-end talent is certainly jaw-dropping, but outside of the two new faces, Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider, there's a lot of unproven or unimpressive players up and down this lineup.
The defense is a similar story, although there are no elite players on the blue line in Manhattan. Trouba is a top-pair player, but he's got very little help and could be in for a bumpy ride this season as he tries to shoulder the load.
This group likely won't make life easy on the goaltenders, either. Last season the Rangers finished with the sixth-worst xGA per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, so it won't be all lemonade and popsicles for Henrik Lundvist and Alexandar Georgiev in goal.
There's a lot to be excited about at Madison Square Garden and that's fine, especially because high-profile offseason moves often inflate prices, which is what's happened here.
I'll be on the under 89.5.
Montreal Canadiens
- Stanley Cup Odds: 35-1
- Season Point Total: 90.5
- Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes -106, No -130
Carey Price and the Canadiens exceeded expectations in 2018-19, posting 96 points and falling two points shy of the last seed. Usually 96 points is good enough to get into the dance and its unfortunate the Habs didn't get in last season, because a replication of that effort will be unlikely. Not impossible, of course, but unlikely.
Montreal boasts a well-balanced, yet unspectacular group of forwards headlined by the buzzsaw that is Brendan Gallagher. Gallagher isn't without help as Phillip Danault has turned himself into an effective playmaker, Max Domi has embraced a top-six role, Tomas Tatar has blossomed and 19-year-old Jesperi Kotkaniemi already looks like a complete player.
The defense may not be dripping with houshold names, but it's a solid unit and the Habs had the fourth-best xGA/60 in 2018-19. That makes sense considering that they are coached by Claude Julien, who turned the Bruins into a defensive powerhouse earlier in the decade.
After a horrible season in 2017-18, Carey Price looked more like his former self last season. If he continues to trend up, he can steal the Habs a playoff spot almost on his own. That's especially true considering that the Canadiens should post strong underlying numbers.
There's definitely reason for optimism and Montreal has an outside chance to be a contender, but the Habs have the misfortune is playing in the Atlantic Division, which features the three Stanley Cup favorites and the trendy Florida Panthers.
I don't like to tie money down on too many season-long futures with short odds, but I'd say that the price on the Canadiens to miss the playoffs looks like a +EV play as I'd put their chances at 37-40%.
New York Islanders
- Stanley Cup Odds: 30-1
- Season Point Total: 89.5
- Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes +121, No -159
The New York Islanders were a polarizing team in 2018-19. They came into the season with low expectations and turned those odds upside down, tallying 103 points and sweeping the Penguins in Round 1 of the postseason.
The Isles went from being the worst defensive team in a generation in '17-18 to being the league's stingiest team — in terms of goals allowed — last season. The Barry Trotz Effect was immense and a lot of analysts were waiting for the Islanders to come back down to earth, but they never really did. Trotz turned the Isles into one a tricky puzzle and teams couldn't figure them out.
Once again the Isles come into a season with quiet expectations, though their Cup odds are much shorter than they were last summer and have very little value.
Even though the Islanders don't have much star power outside of Mat Barzal, they do boast more scoring depth than meets the eye. Jordan Eberle, Anders Lee, Brock Nelson and Josh Bailey are all effective producers and there's some high upside with players like Anthony Beauvillier.
The Islanders' defense is solid top-to-bottom and the organization has plenty of depth to lean on. The more encouraging news for the Islanders is that most of the defensemen, save for Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy, are just about to enter their prime.
The defense may even get better this season with blue-chip prospect, Noah Dobson, joining a crew that already boasts Ryan Pulock and Devon Toews.
On the surface it looked like Trotz and his goaltending coach, Mitch Korn, seemed to work a minor miracle with goaltenders Robin Lehner — who left for the Blackhawks — and Thomas Greiss, but the defense did such a terrific job at easing the burden on the goaltenders that seeing another terrific season from Greiss and Semyon Varlamov is not as big of an unknown as pundits are suggesting.
As an Islander fan, this may come off biased, but I think the Isles are better than they've been given credit for again this season. The team is largely unchanged, though Vezina-nominated goaltender Lehner has moved on, and that means they have a host of players entering season two in Trotz's system.
People clamoring for regression on Long Island may be overlooking a couple things. The power play was god awful last season and should get better, and two of the players who were prime regression candidates, Valtteri Filppula and Lehner, are no longer on the team.
Most projections have the Islanders around 90 points and money came in on their season win total almost as soon as the market opened, but I'd suggest the market may be off a little bit again.
I'd have bet the Islanders to win the Stanley Cup at anything north of 40-1 and given the market reaction this summer, I think they may be underpriced, on a game-to-game basis, as the season gets started.
New Jersey Devils
- Stanley Cup Odds: 25-1
- Season Point Total: 91.5
- Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes -115, No -115
The New Jersey Devils had themselves one helluva summer.
Not only did the Devils win the draft lottery and select Jack Hughes No. 1 overall, but they acquired P.K. Subban from the Predators and made a savvy gamble by acquiring Nikita Gusev from the Vegas Golden Knights.
The new faces join a talented group that already had an abundance of high-end talent, specifically Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier and Kyle Pamieri.
Subban's arrival jolts the defense from bad to above average but there is a big red flag at the Prudential Center and it's in the blue paint.
A few seasons ago, Cory Schneider seemed well on his way to becoming one of the league's best goaltenders. Things have not gone according to plan for Schneider as he's battled injury issues since arriving in Newark. He's the de facto No. 1 goalie heading into this season but MacKenzie Blackwood will likely be leaned on heavily as the season progresses. The 22-year-old looked impressive and a posted a .918 raw save percentage in 23 games last year, but relying on a young goalie with a small sample is worrisome.
As usual, the market seemed to overreact to New Jersey's shiny offseason moves and has driven this price out of control. There's no great way to fade the Devils in the futures market, but there's definitely a strategy I'll be looking to exploit when the season starts.
Once again, it all comes down to price in betting, but my best guess is New Jersey will be overrated in the early part of the season and make for great fade material.
Winnipeg Jets
- Stanley Cup Odds: 20-1
- Season Point Total: 93.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes -167, No +130
We'll start at the bottom of this list with a team that should be a good fade candidate heading into the campaign. Despite almost winning the Central Division and making the postseason, the Winnipeg Jets underwhelmed against high expectations in 2018-19.
Even though they were in the Central Division hunt all season and finished with 99 points, the Jets always looked like an empty suit last year. Winnipeg's expected goals rate (48.02%) was below average and the Jets were not the possession juggernaut they were the previous season.
After a solid campaign in 2017-18, Connor Hellebuyck came back to earth last season and ended the year with a -6.91 Goals Saved Above Average. In fact, if it wasn’t for back-up goalie Laurent Brossoit — who finished with a +9.34 GSAA in 21 games — the Jets may have been in big trouble.
We don't know what type of goaltender Hellebuyck will be in 2019-20, but it's hard to expect Brossoit to put up the same kind of numbers again if Hellebuyck falters.
The goaltending will be under the microscope in '19-20 because the Jets' defense has turned into a pumpkin this offseason. Not only did Winnipeg trade Jacob Trouba (for pennies on the dollar) to the Rangers, but Dustin Byfuglien is taking a leave of absence and won't start the season with the team.
With the Jets down their two best defensemen from last season, Josh Morrissey will step into a much bigger role. Morrissey has looked good thus far in his NHL career but carrying this kind of workload may be asking too much.
Winnipeg's best path to success is by relying on its talented group of forwards. Any team with Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers on its roster has a chance to be good, but each of them will need to stay healthy and produce consistently to keep Winnipeg alive in the Central Division.
There are just too many alarm bells going off here to be confident in the Jets. I think the Jets are 50/50 at best to make it to the postseason, so +130 on them to miss the playoffs is a good bet.
Florida Panthers
- Stanley Cup Odds: 20-1
- Season Point Total: 94.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes -200, No +135
The number seems a little short on the Florida Panthers, but I certainly understand why the betting has gotten a bit out of hand. The Panthers come into the new season with considerable hype after signing top-five goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky and hiring three-time Stanley Cup winner Joel Quenneville as head coach.
The Panthers have a dynamic, young core and they aren't short on high-end talent, so buzzy offseason moves were always going to cause an overreaction.
I think the Cats will be good, but I'm a little more bearish on them than the market is. Florida's season points total sits at 94.5 points and that seems fair in a vacuum, but the Panthers are no sure thing.
Bobrovsky grades out as one of the best goaltenders on the planet and his +61.6 Goals Saved Above Average over the past three seasons is the best in the NHL. However, goaltending is such a volatile position that a down season from 'Bob' isn't out of the question and it could be disastrous because he's got an unproven backup and Florida's defense isn't impressive.
Florida is a solid group, but its path to the Stanley Cup. The Panthers play in the Atlantic Division with the three Stanley Cup favorites (Tampa, Boston and Toronto) and another borderline-playoff team in Montreal. Having Florida priced with the Penguins and Hurricanes, who should have an easier path to the Cup, just shows you that the offseason hype is driving up this price.
I'm not getting involved with the Panthers in any way before the season, but if their futures price reflects how the market views them, I suspect they will be very overrated on a game-to-game basis in the early part of the season.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- Stanley Cup Odds: 20-1
- Season Point Total: 95.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes -182, No +140
Considering the Pittsburgh Penguins have flown somewhat under the radar this offseason. The Pens made one significant move this summer, trading Phil Kessel to the Coyotes for Alex Galchenyuk.
Losing a player with Kessel's offensive profile isn't a good thing, but it was clear his time was up in Steel Town. Galchenyuk has not come close to living up to the potential of being a No. 3 overall draft pick, but riding shotgun next to Sidney Crosby and Geno Malkin does wonderful things for a career.
The knock on the Penguins is that their defense is top heavy and an injury to Kris Letang and/or Justin Schultz will mean the Pens will need to rely on a Jack Johnson and Erik Gudbranson too much. Johnson is one of the league's worst blue-liners and Gudbranson was right there with him, but the latter actually had some success when he was traded from Vancouver.
Matt Murray and Tristan Jarry project to be a slightly above-average goaltending tandem and the good news is that Pittsburgh's offensive firepower can cover up the blemishes on defense.
I stay away from preseason favorites when it comes to betting Stanley Cup futures, but of all the teams on this list, I think the Penguins carry the most value in terms of outright futures. At 20-1, you'd need Pittsburgh to win the Stanley Cup just about 5% of the time to have value and I don't think that's out of the question.
Perhaps a savvier strategy is to wait out the first month of the season and bite on the Penguins if they stumble out of the gates but put up strong peripheral numbers.
Carolina Hurricanes
- Stanley Cup Odds: 20-1
- Season Point Total: 94.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes -157, No +121
This will be the first time in about a half decade that I won't be investing in a Carolina Hurricanes outright future before the season.
Going by the odds, the Canes are expected to battle with the Penguins and Washington Capitals in the wide-open Metropolitan Division.
The Hurricanes have built a reputation for being a trendy dark horse over the past few seasons, but this year will be different. A run to the Eastern Conference Finals and an impressive offseason have vaulted Carolina from sleeper to contender and there are very few teams with a higher ceiling than the Canes.
Carolina finished last season with the best xG rate in the league, but just the 12th-best goal share. That suggests there's still room to grow and given how well things went for Carolina this offseason, there's a good chance they are even better.
The offense, headlined by Sebastian Aho, is dripping with talent and Andrei Svechnikov showed all the signs of being a star in an impressive rookie campaign. For most teams, a forward group that consists of Aho, Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen and Nino Niederreiter would be the clear strength of the roster, but for Carolina it is actually the defense that deserves the most shine.
Carolina's defense was one of the best units in the NHL last season and it only got stronger in the offseason. The addition of Jake Gardiner from Toronto gives the Canes a top four of Jaccob Slavin, Dougie Hamilton, Brett Pesce and Gardiner.
As is always the case with the Canes, this season will come down to goaltending. Petr Mrazek made good on a one-year show-me contract with Carolina last season, but he's going to need to at least repeat his .931 5-on-5 save percentage and +8.24 GSAA from last season.
Mrazek only played 40 games in 2018-19 because the Hurricanes had the dependable Curtis McElhinney backing him up, but McElhinney has been replaced by James Reimer, who has struggled in recent seasons, and that could mean an expanded workload for Mrazek.
Carolina's season point total currently sits at 94.5 points and I think there's good value on the over, but in terms of outright odds, I'm approaching the Hurricanes in the same fashion as I am working with the Penguins.
I think you can make a case that Carolina wins the Stanley Cup 5% of the time, but the number is too short for my liking and I'm instead happy to wait and see if Carolina's odds lengthen if the Canes get off to an uninspiring start.
San Jose Sharks
- Stanley Cup Odds: 18-1
- Season Point Total: 95.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes -358, No +250
The San Jose Sharks came within two games of making their second Stanley Cup Final in the past four seasons.
San Jose feels like a known commodity at this point, but the Sharks had a bit of a changing-of-the-guard offseason with Joe Pavelski walking out after spending 13 seasons with San Jose. Pavelski was the team's best right-winger and his absence will leave a big hole in San Jose's top six.
That's not to say the Sharks aren't still formidable up front, as Timo Meier is well on his way to being a star and Logan Couture, Evander Kane and Tomas Hertl are all great players in their own right.
San Jose's defense is an attention-grabber with Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns giving them a 1-2 punch few teams in NHL history have ever had the luxury of on the blueline.
There's plenty of high-end talent to make San Jose relevant and they shouldn't have any trouble getting to the postseason in a very weak Pacific Division, but I'm not sure how high the team's ceiling is, especially considering the situation in the blue paint.
At this point I've given up on trying to figure out Martin Jones. He was terrible for San Jose in the regular season and then began to stand on his head in the postseason.
The players in front of Jones didn't make life particularly easy for the enigmatic goaltender, as his .913 expected save percentage (5-on-5) was the third-lowest mark in the NHL among goalies who appeared in at least 30 games last season. Jones still underwhelmed, posting a .898 5-on-5 save percentage.
The prices on the Sharks seem appropriate and I'm not looking to get involved with them preseason.
Calgary Flames
- Stanley Cup Odds: 18-1
- Season Point Total: 97.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes -251, No +185
The Calgary Flames were both a pleasant and unpleasant surprise in 2018-19. After romping through the regular season and grabbing the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, the Flames were unceremoniously dumped by the Colorado Avalanche in Round 1.
It took 82 games for the Flames to vault themselves onto the radar as a contender and just five for it all to come crumbling down.
Under the hood, things looked great all season long for Bill Peters' charges. They finished third in the NHL in goal share and eighth in expected goals. Calgary has plenty of top-end scorers led by Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Elias Lindholm. That top line is easily one of the 10 best trios in the NHL and they are backed up by a strong group of secondary scorers.
The defense, led by Mark Giordano, remains above average and could end up being a top-10 unit if Rasmus Andersson continues to grow into his game.
The pieces are still there for the Flames and they have the luxury of playing in the Pacific Division, so a playoff spot should be the expectation. But once again, this team looks like it will be sunk by goaltending.
The team tried to address the issue in the offseason by letting Mike Smith walk and bringing in Cam Talbot, but there's not much of an upgrade there. Talbot has had one sensational season but outside of that he's been mediocre at best.
The Pacific Division has enough cannon fodder to make a playoff berth pretty likely for Calgary, but I think they will take a step back from the number of points they posted last season, though the edge isn't big enough to back the under.
Washington Capitals
- Stanley Cup Odds: 16-1
- Season Point Total: 99.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes -527, No +341
The price on the Washington Capitals is definitely too short, but 2019-20 should be another typical season for Alex Ovechkin and Co.
Things look solid up front as Todd Reirden has a terrific top six headlined by Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom. Those four lead the charge but the emergence of Jakub Vrana has given the top of Washington's lineup card some balance.
Washington's underlying numbers are usually a bit suspect — the Capitals finished with a 47.6 xG% in 2018-19 — but their shooting talent is elite and they have a top-5 goaltender in Braden Holtby.
I've got the Capitals, Hurricanes and Penguins on basically level terms heading into the season, so I don't see much value here.
Nashville Predators
- Stanley Cup Odds: 16-1
- Season Point Total: 98.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes -435, No +300
The Nashville Predators won the Central Division with 100 points in '18-19 but it was a bumpy ride for the Preds, who were unceremoniously dumped by the Dallas Stars in Round 1 of the postseason.
Under the hood everything looked good for the Predators. Peter Laviolette's team finished 11th in expected goals and eighth in Goal Share (GF%) at 5-on-5. That didn't stop trigger-happy general manager David Poile to shake things up summer, essentially offloading P.K. Subban so the Preds could sign Matt Duchene.
That move changed Nashville's identity a bit, going from a team known for its elite defense to a balanced squad in all areas of the ice.
Duchene, Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson, Filip Forsberg and Mikael Granlund gives Nashville some pizzazz at the top of the lineup card and if Kyle Turris can find his game in a less-pressured role, the Preds could have one of the league's most effective top-sixes in the circuit.
I have Nashville as the second-best team in the Central, but there's nothing that excites me enough for a pre-season investment on the Preds.
Colorado Avalanche
- Stanley Cup Odds: 16-1
- Season Point Total: 95.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes -286, No +210
When the market was set for the 2019-20 season, the Colorado Avalanche were the first team to catch my eye. The Avs were near the top of the board and were slapped with a 100.5-point Over/Under.
Sure, the Avalanche are a team on the rise with a terrific goaltender and a bonafide superstar, but are they a 100-point team with a 6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup?
Not quite.
The market agreed with my original assessment of Colorado and the Avs' season point total has been bet down to 95.5 points, which is much more appropriate for the Avalanche.
There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic in Colorado. The Avs feature one of the best lines in hockey, their young defense will only continue to get better and Philipp Grubauer looks like he's becoming one of the best goalies in the league.
More likely than not, Colorado is a playoff team and is in the thick of the race for the Central Division. I wouldn't be confident in backing them to reach loftier heights than that.
If the preseason buzz surrounding the Avalanche carries into the regular season, they should be overvalued on a game-to-game basis and there should be opportunities to fade the Avs at good prices.
St. Louis Blues
- Stanley Cup Odds: 15-1
- Season Point Total: 95.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes -334, No +235
After winning the Stanley Cup for the first time in their 51-year history, the St. Louis Blues are 15-1 to repeat.
Defense won the championship last season and if the Blues repeat, it will be on the strength of their defensive play.
St. Louis finished third in xGA/60 and High-Danger Chances Allowed per 60 last season and it got terrific goaltending from Jordan Binnington after the New Year.
Not much has changed for St. Louis heading into this season. The Blues lost Patrick Maroon to free agency and swapped Joel Edmundson for Justin Faulk.
There aren't many holes to poke in this roster, but if I had to take a shot at doing so, I'd start with the goaltending, as weird as that may sound after Binnington's other-worldly run last spring.
Goaltending is difficult to predict and the sample size on Binnington is still small enough that I'd be a little weary of penciling him in as one of the league's best net minders. We've seen goalies get hot at the right time in the playoffs and then come back down to earth (Cam Ward, Connor Hellebuyck, Matt Murray) before, so a step back is not out of the question.
St. Louis should be right in the mix again this season and I think anything higher than 16-1 to win the Stanley Cup is worth a look, but backing a team at short odds in a brutal division doesn't seem like a great idea.
Dallas Stars
- Stanley Cup Odds: 14-1
- Season Point Total: 95.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes -286, No +210
The Dallas Stars were so close last spring, falling to the Blues in double-overtime of Game 7 of Round 2. One more good bounce here or there and who knows what could have been.
You'd think a team that is headlined by Tyler Seguin, Alex Radulov and Jamie Benn would be built around offense, but head coach Jim Montgomery turned the Stars into a sturdy defensive ship last winter. Dallas finished eighth in xGA/60 and third in GA/60. The delta between the Stars' expected goals against and actual goals against can be chalked up to a fantastic season from goaltender Ben Bishop.
Bishop was deservedly nominated for the Vezina Trophy and Anton Khudobin is one of the league's stronger backups, so there's a good Plan B if Bishop stumbles or gets hurt.
It's hard to imagine the Stars will change much about their game this season, but they did add a big piece to their top six. Joe Pavelski may be 35, but he's still a first-line caliber player and will give Dallas some much needed scoring balance.
Dallas' defense features two of the game's rising young stars, John Klingberg and Miro Heiskanen, but the supporting cast leaves something to be desired.
The Stars have taken some money and shortened all the way to 14-1. I think that number overrates them, but I don't see any value fading them with an Under (95.5 points).
Instead, I will be keeping a close eye on how the Stars are priced in the day-to-day market. They are the second favorite to win the Western Conference at PointsBet and if they are priced that way on a daily basis, there should be some good value going the other way.
Vegas Golden Knights
- Stanley Cup Odds: 11-1
- Season Point Total: 100.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes -334, No +235
The Knights are even-money favorites to win the Pacific Division and, while that number is short, it gives you an idea of what to expect from Vegas in its third season.
Mark Stone is one of the league's best all-around players and his arrival at the trade deadline turned Vegas' top-six into the best group in the Western Conference.
The bottom half of Vegas' forward group isn't anything spectacular, but they don't need to be anything more than effective given who is playing in front of them. They have a higher ceiling than that, though, as Alex Tuch, Cody Glass and Brandon Pirri should provide some offensive upside.
The Knights defense may be lacking in household names, but it's a solid group. Nate Schmidt and Shea Theodore both could play on a No. 1 pairing while Brayden McNabb and Jon Merrill grade out fine as top-four guys. There may not be anything to write home about with this unit, but there's nothing to be alarmed about, either.
Marc-Andre Fleury will once again be asked to shoulder the load in goal and he's been a top-10 goalie in his two seasons with Vegas. 'Flower' is turning 35 in November and Malcolm Subban doesn't exactly inspire confidence behind him, so if there is a flaw to be pointed out, it's there.
As long as things don't go horribly wrong in goal and the Knights aren't crippled by injury I don't see them having much trouble putting up 100 points in the softest division in the NHL. I won't be investing on them in the preseason, but I wouldn't argue against anybody taking the over even at triple digits.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Stanley Cup Odds: 10-1
- Season Point Total: 104.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes -1667, No +700
The Toronto Maple Leafs are once again among the Stanley Cup favorites and are one of the most talented teams on the planet. Unfortunately, they play in the same division as the other two Stanley Cup favorites.
Anything under 100 points would be surprising from this group, but it's not the regular season that matters for a team that hasn't won a Stanley Cup since 1967 — they also haven't won a playoff series in 15 years.
This is as good a chance as the Leafs will get at ending the hoodoo.
It all starts with the forwards in Toronto and this group can be summed up pretty succinctly. It's scary good. Toronto's got an enviable amount of elite-level forwards and there's very little doubts about their ability to score.
The other end of the ice is a different story, though.
The Leafs struggled to suppress scoring chances last season, allowing the seventh-most expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
The team addressed some of its shortcomings on defense by acquiring Jake Muzzin at the trade deadline and Tyson Barrie this summer, but this group is slightly above average at the moment. The Buds score enough to provide cover for their defense and Frederik Andersen is among the league's best goalies, so it's not a huge red flag by any means.
It goes without saying, but Andersen's health could be what determines how far Toronto goes in '19-20. The team's high-risk, high-reward style puts an onus on the defense and if Andersen goes down and the Leafs need to rely on Michael Hutchinson in goal it could all come down.
The Leafs are deservedly among the Stanley Cup favorites, but these odds are incredibly short for a team that will need to deal with Boston and Tampa Bay. It's a fascinating race to watch, but not one I'll be betting on.
Boston Bruins
- Stanley Cup Odds: 10-1
- Season Point Total: 101.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes -556, No +360
While the Leafs are looking to win by out-scoring their opponents, the Bruins are the poster child for grinding out results. It's hard to find a team in the league that is better at winning 2-1 or 3-2 games than Boston.
The Bruins allowed the second-fewest goals against, expected goals against and high-danger chances against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in '18-19 and that's been the B's M.O. for a generation.
That type of defensive profile, coupled with elite talent at the top of their roster on all ends of the ice makes Boston a perennial contender.
I don't have any doubts the Bruins will be back in the hunt again this spring, these numbers just aren't worth betting into, especially with the Bruins having to deal with the Maple Leafs and Lightning.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- Stanley Cup Odds: 7-1
- Season Point Total: 110.5
- Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes -2000, No +850
Despite a shocking first-round exit last spring, the Tampa Bay Lightning are still the cream of the crop in the NHL.
Tampa Bay's forwards are a known commodity at this point. Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point are all head-turning talents and the depth behind them is terrific. Yanni Gourde, Ondrej Palat, Anthony Cirelli and Mathieu Joseph all bring a lot to the table and give Jon Cooper the luxury of rolling four lines night in and night out.
The defense in Tampa Bay doesn't get the credit that the offense does, but this group can play with any other sextet in the league. Victor Hedman leads the charge, but Ryan McDonagh, Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak give the Bolts a tremendous top four.
Even though they were closing in on the cap, the Bolts made two savvy adds this summer by bringing in Kevin Shattenkirk as a third-pair defenseman and Curtis McElhinney to back up Vezina-winner Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Shattenkirk's game fell off a cliff as the No. 1 guy with the Rangers, but Tampa Bay is bringing him on to be a third-pair rearguard with some offensive upside. He should be a positive contributor in sheltered minutes.
The signing of McElhinney didn't make any headlines, but it shored up Tampa's biggest roster weakness from last season. Gone are the days where teams ask their No. 1 goalie to play 70 games a season, so bringing in a proven commodity behind Vezina-winner Andrei Vasilevskiy should pay off down the road.
The Lightning are the most likely team to win the Stanley Cup, but it's not a foregone conclusion. Their 7-1 odds imply there is an 87.5% chance the Cup eludes them once again in 2020.
Zerillo's Projected Standings
Metropolitan Division
Atlantic Division
Central Division
Pacific Division
