Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
In this piece, I highlight my favorite NHL player props for Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals with the St. Louis Blues & Boston Bruins. NOTE: I might update this piece as the market develops.
Early in 2019, I wasn’t sharp on hockey: That’s reflected in my year-to-date NHL record below. But in the postseason I’ve had success.
Since I started making my own projections and publishing postseason NHL prop articles, I’m 67-31-4 (+30.14). In Game 1 of the series, I was 5-1-2.
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2019 Year-to-Date Record
843-620-46, +134.99 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 408-304-7, +49.86 Units
- NHL: 133-111-11, +22.57 Units
- MLB: 51-57-14, -11.69 Units
- Golf: 9-13-2, -1.70 Units
- NASCAR: 12-17-0, -4.42 Units
- NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
- Horse Racing: 4-0-0, +2.19 Units
Game 2: St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins Betting Odds
- Blues: +145
- Bruins: -165
- Over: 5.5 (+124)
- Under: 5.5 (-141)
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- TV: NBCSN
St. Louis Blues Player Props
Blues C Ryan O'Reilly: 2.5 Shots on Goal
- Over 2.5: +120
- Under 2.5: -150
Entering the series, I planned to bet a lot of unders on player props, but in Game 1 the Blues had just 20 shots on goal, which (in my opinion) has caused the oddsmakers to set some lines too low for Game 2.
O'Reilly is second on the Blues with his 2.68 shots per game this year (including the playoffs), and I expect him to get his shots tonight.
I admit that O'Reilly doesn’t have a great matchup. In the regular season, the Bruins held opponents to the sixth-fewest shots on goal with 28.3. While that number has bumped up to 31.7 in the postseason, the Bruins are still a team that limits shots with their defense — as evidenced by their strong performance in Game 1.
And in general, it’s profitable to bet unders in the Stanley Cup Finals. We shouldn’t expect to see a lot of shots from the Blues.
But I still have O'Reilly projected for 2.58 shots on goal and would bet the over down to +100.
The Pick: Over 2.5 (+120)
Blues RW David Perron: 1.5 Shots on Goal
- Over 1.5: -125
- Under 1.5: -105
In his 77 games this season (including playoffs), Perron has averaged exactly two shots on goal per game. In the postseason in particular, he's bumped that number up to 2.1.
There's no good reason for his shots prop to be this low. I have Perron projected for 1.98 shots and would bet the over down to -145.
The Pick: Over 1.5 (-125)
Blues C Tyler Bozak: 1.5 Shots on Goal
- Over 1.5: +100
- Under 1.5: -130
Bozak has just 1.4 shots per game in the playoffs, but for the entire year he's averaged 1.84, and I expect that he will progress to the mean at some point.
I have him projected for 1.57 shots and would bet the over to -105.
The Pick: Over 1.5 (+100)
UPDATED: Additional Blues Player Props
- Vladimir Tarasenko over 3.0 shots on goal: +104, bet to -135, projected for 3.40
- Alex Pietrangelo under 2.5 shots on goal: +110, bet to +100, projected for 2.45
Boston Bruins Player Props
Bruins C David Krejci: 1.5 Shots on Goal
- Over 1.5: -140
- Under 1.5: +110
In Game 1, the Bruins had a massive 38 shots, and I think oddsmakers have set some of their Game 2 lines too high as a result.
The Blues are a diligent defensive team. In the regular season, they held opponents to 28.6 shots on goal per game. In the playoffs, that number has increased slightly to 28.9. The Blues are one of the best teams in the league at limiting shots.
In his 99 games this year (including playoffs), Krejci has averaged 1.65 shots per game, but with his matchup, I lean toward the under.
I have him projected for 1.43 shots and would bet the under to -105.
The Pick: Under 1.5 (+110)
Bruins RW David Backes: 2.0 Shots on Goal
- Over 2.0: -115
- Under 2.0: -115
The Backes under is easily my favorite bet on the slate. In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have it graded with a bet quality of 10.
Although Backes had three shots in Game 1, he has averaged just 1.79 shots across his 82 games this year (including playoffs). And in the postseason that number has dropped to 1.5 as his playing time has decreased to 9.67 minutes per game from the 13.04 he averaged in the regular season.
In the playoffs, Backes has two or fewer shots in nine of his 12 games (75%).
This bet could easily end in a push, but I have Backes projected for just 1.23 shots and would bet the under all the way to -175.
The Pick: Under 2.0 (-115)
Bruins D Charlie McAvoy: 1.5 Shots on Goal
- Over 1.5: -130
- Under 1.5: +100
In Game 1, this line was available at 2.0, but I still think there's value on the under.
In his 71 games this year (including playoffs), McAvoy has just 1.38 shots on goal. And in the postseason, that number has actually dropped to 1.12.
In the playoffs, McAvoy has had fewer than 1.5 shots in 11 of 17 games (64.7%).
I have McAvoy projected for 1.31 shots and would bet the under to -115.
The Pick: Under 1.5 (+100)
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
