Check out some early 2024-25 NHL odds, picks & predictions with my preseason picks for season goalscorer over/unders.
With NHL training camp coming in a little more than a month, it would be a disservice to ignore those shiny new futures that are waiting for us in the sportsbooks.
Last season was something else. The NHL has seemingly become a scoring league once again – filled with dazzling talents such as Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews and David Pastrnak. We’re starting to see players score 40 goals at a consistent rate, which seemed unheard of 10 years ago.
So why not strike while the iron is hot?
For the remainder of the offseason, expect a number of future pieces written by Action Network's NHL staff, myself includes. Last week, my esteemed colleague Tony Sartori offered a few solid NHL PrizePicks futures that you should check out.
Below, I’ve also compiled four over/unders in total goals for the season, the odds and my prediction for each one.
Please note that DraftKings has set -115 odds for every player in this category; it’s not a typo.
NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Season Goalscorers
Anthony Duclair Over 23.5 Goals (-115 at DraftKings)
Anthony Duclair, or “The Duke” as they call him, signed with the New York Islanders as the lone new acquisition for the Blue and Orange.
While it seems that Duclair has been in the league forever, he’ll be only 29 once training camp comes around. He’s still in the prime of his career, and he's proved that he can score in this league with a handful of 20+ goal seasons, including one in which he hit the 30-goal mark.
It feels like the Islanders and Duclair are a match made in heaven. Isles coach Patrick Roy worked with the veteran when he was playing for the Quebec Remparts in the QMJHL, and Duclair credited his former coach as a big reason why he signed with the team.
From the looks of it, he’ll be playing with Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat, both all-stars in their own right. Barzal is a shifty playmaker who can skate circles around opponents, while Horvat plays a strong two-way game.
The Island has plenty of goals to go around. While many viewed the Isles as a “mid” team, three players last season managed to notch 30 goals, and two others hit the 20-goal mark.
I think Duclair’s prop of 23.5 is more than reasonable, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he surpasses that total.
Auston Matthews Under 59.5 Goals (-115 at DraftKings)
In case you’ve been living under a rock, Auston Matthews is a mutant. The fact that his goal prop is listed at 59.5 is laughable.
This is one of the props that I had to second-guess, just because Matthews is so dynamic. He has a shot that seemingly no one can stop and was one goal away from becoming the first player to hit 70 goals in a season since both Teemu Selanne and Alexander Mogilny did it in 1992-93.
So why am I picking the under for such a dynamo? I like living life on the edge.
In all seriousness, though, when looking at Matthews’ career statistics, I’m sensing a little bit of a trend, and I’m banking on it to continue. In 2022-23, he had the worst shooting season of his career by hitting only 12% of his shots. The previous year, though, he netted 60 goals.
What I’ve noticed a lot about players is when they have insanely good goalscoring seasons, regression is right around the corner. For instance, two seasons ago McDavid scored 64 goals, and he followed it with 32 this past season.
Like everything else in life, there are few exceptions to the rule. However, despite Matthews' being the goalscorer he is, 59.5 just seems to be too high of a number for me. He’ll just have to settle for fewer than 60 goals. Poor thing.
Sam Reinhart Under 39.5 Goals (-115 at DraftKings)
An interesting case is Sam Reinhart, a member of the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers.
He was always a good, if not great player, and he was usually good for 25-32 goals per season. However, this past season, Reinhart blew up in an astronomical way, registering a career-high 57 goals when his previous career-high was 33.
I was flabbergasted when I dove deeper into his stats. He led the NHL in shooting percentage at 24.5%; however, he took only the 42nd most shots out of all players. That is just purely unsustainable numbers.
Reinhart made a living last season in front of the net on the power play, ready to rip his shot at any given moment – and it clearly worked.
However, his performance in the playoffs has raised suspicions. For someone so dominant all season, he went invisible for certain games, and he was a nonfactor from May 17 through June 10 (with the exception of a two-goal game against the Rangers).
I like Reinhart a lot, but a repeat season seems unlikely. I’d pencil him for a steady 34 goals this season, which isn’t a bad year by any means, but 50+ again is pushing it.
Kirill Marchenko Over 24.5 Goals(-115 at DraftKings)
If you’re a hockey casual, you probably have no idea who Kirill Marchenko is, and for good reason.
He plays for the Columbus Blue Jackets, who, quite frankly, have been in complete disarray for a few years.
Marchenko is a one-dimensional player, but that one dimension is performed at a high level. In his first two seasons, and 137 total games played, he’s registered 44 goals or .32 goals per game.
That’s a really strong pace for a young player in this league, and he gets to do it side-by-side with a legitimate playmaker in Johnny Gaudreau.
Gaudreau has become a forgotten name in the NHL since moving to Ohio, and understandably so: The Blue Jackets are terrible. However, it shouldn’t denote that Gaudreau is still an exceptional playmaker.
With a player such as Marchenko ready and willing to let it loose any chance he gets, I can see him easily clearing the 24.5 mark. Columbus also signed Sean Monahan this summer, so there will be plenty of opportunities for the Russian to use his laser of a shot.
