Here are my 2024-25 NHL picks with some early futures bets for the upcoming season.
The Florida Panthers recently hoisted the Stanley Cup, but the reigning champions aren't the only NHL squad with their eye on the prize. The 2024-25 season doesn't kick off until Oct. 4, but we've already seen a flurry of activity, including the recent NHL Draft and free-agent signings.
The 2024-25 season also sees the debut of the NHL's newest franchise: the Utah Hockey Club.
In fact, that team is one of my favorite early picks for the upcoming NHL season.
Check out both of them below.
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2024 NHL Picks
Playoff Berth for Utah Hockey Club
When the 2024-25 Stanley Cup Outright markets initially opened in June, Utah was one team whose chances seemed to be underrated by oddsmakers ahead of free agency and the draft. Especially given that new owners Ryan and Ashley Smith are reportedly keen to be a contender in the organization's inaugural campaign, and therefore the team was expected to make some moves to try to be competitive next year.
That's why I was eager to see where Utah's number to make the playoffs would open. That market sets up as a more logical way to target Utah than winning the Cup outright. Utah's roster still remains a significant way away from being among the true heavyweights in the West like Edmonton and Dallas, but they're fairly close to the pack of projected wild-card teams whom oddsmakers seem to be crediting.
At +190 odds for Utah to make the playoffs, I see some clear value, especially now that the team has made several solid win-now types of moves this offseason.
Utah came right out with a big splash in trading for Mikhail Sergachev, who still holds the upside of a legitimate No. 1 defenseman. While Tampa certainly received a fair package in J.J. Moser, Conor Geekie and two draft picks, the move clearly boosts Utah's upside for next season.
Utah made another high-upside bet on defender John Marino, who became expendable to the Devils after a down year and a crowded situation on the backend. Marino has had some excellent stretches of play in his career though, and at just age 27, he looks like a smart bet to bounce back in a new situation.
The Marino trade holds some parallels to GM Bill Armstrong's acquisition of Sean Durzi last offseason, which worked out quite well based on Durzi's excellent play this year.
With Sergachev and Marino added to the top four alongside Durzi and Juuso Valimaki, Utah features a defensive unit that's on par with other wild-card hopefuls out West.
Arizona was a respectable offensive side last year while generating 3.10 goals per game, which was largely based on the play of a solid top-nine upfront. Utah should be well situated to build on that number this year with the help of a defense core that should help to drive play in the right direction more effectively.
Many of the club's key forwards should progress this season compared to last, which could create a potent offensive core. Youngsters Logan Cooley, Matias Maccelli and Dylan Guenther all look like safe bets for more production this season. Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz also should remain legitimate top liners once again.
Utah's goaltending duo will consist of Connor Ingram and Karel Vejmelka again in 2024-25. Goaltending is tough to project, and that point was well proven last season as Ingram was fantastic in playing to +8.7 GSAx – while Vejmelka struggled to a -6.7 GSAx despite entering the year as the projected starter.
Ingram may not prove to be as effective as he was last season, but Vejmelka has also proven he can play much better than what we saw in 2023-24.
Not many teams are a lock to have strong goaltending entering next season, and Utah is one of them. All in all, though, the team's goaltending unit looks respectable and has a good chance of managing league-average results.
Another angle worth considering that can't be factored into any model is that the team will now benefit from holding all the same peripheral edges as other NHL franchises, which weren't available last season when the organization was still financially starved in Arizona.
Arizona was forced to cut corners in terms of accommodations, catering, coaching and other amenities that greater financial backing can help supply. The roster may certainly benefit from improvements on that front, and the morale from the roster core ahead of this season seems quite high.
Given the team's price of +190 to make the playoffs, Utah's roster doesn't feature the glaring flaws you might expect. It holds a good mix of proven talent and young pieces ready to take steps forward.
I'll bet that the Utah Hockey Club comes out strong in its inaugural season.
The Pick: Utah Hockey Club to Make Playoffs (+190 at DraftKings)
The 20-1 Pick for Top NHL Defenseman
Offensive production continues to be the most important part of winning the Norris Trophy, which is the greatest argument in favor of backing Rasmus Dahlin in this market.
Rasmus was drafted first overall in 2018 based largely on his special offensive play as a blue-liner. After he posted 73 points in 78 games in 2022-23, he became a trendy pick to win the Norris last summer before putting up just 59 points on a highly disappointing Sabres side.
Former coach Don Granato made tactical changes to make the Sabres a more competent side defensively, but the team's offensive play ended up taking a significant step backward, generating only 2.98 goals per game.
It's hard to say the Sabres will be far better offensively this year with Lindy Ruff once again at the helm, but chances are they will bounce back to some extent, even if just for healthier campaigns from Tage Thompson and Jack Quinn.
Improved team production would help Dahlin in this market.
Especially if a new coaching regime and a healthy Thompson help power an improved power play.
The Sabres ranked 29th last season with a success rate of just 16.6% on the man advantage, but they should be able to improve on that mark this season.
Regular Sabres observers will happily explain that Dahlin was far better last season than he is credited for. The underlying numbers agree with that thought; Dahlin's +20.7 expected Goals Above Replacement ranked seventh among defenders.
If I believed more in the Sabres chances of finally being a playoff team again this season, I would truly love this bet. Still, if Buffalo does bounce back with a respectable season, Dahlin will be a key reason why, and the +2000 odds we are getting is a good number on Dahlin reaching his peak potential this upcoming season.
The Pick: Rasmus Dahlin to win Norris Trophy (+2000 at bet365 & DraftKings)
