Before getting into this article, it is with great sadness that we pass along our thoughts and condolences to the families and friends of Johnny and Matthew Gaudreau in the wake of their tragic passing.
As a Calgary native, I witnessed firsthand Gaudreau's tremendously positive impact on the city through his efforts on and off the ice. He was one of my favorite players to watch on the ice, and more importantly, was by all accounts, a better person off of it.
This piece will outline some of my favorite prices for a pair of awards for the upcoming 2024-25 NHL season. I have some general thoughts on the markets, including bets I'm low on for each market.
Below, check out my 2024-25 predictions for the Jack Adams Award, which recognizes the NHL Coach of the Year, as well as the Calder Trophy, which goes to the NHL Rookie of the Year.
Jack Adams Award – NHL Coach of the Year
First, we'll look at the Jack Adams Award. The NHL Broadcasters’ Association votes annually for the award, which recognizes the year's best NHL coach.
Oddsmakers look to have done a sharper job pricing this market compared to years past when prices revolved more significantly around which teams were likely to be good. Darryl Sutter paid us out at +5000 in 2021-22 for leading the overachieving Flames, and plenty of bettors did well backing Rick Tocchet's Canucks following a similar storyline this past season.
In previous years, I'm not sure we'd see such short prices on obvious candidates such as Sheldon Keefe (+700) and Travis Green (+800), who are well-situated to lead significant year-over-year turnarounds from their respective sides.
Due largely to injuries and horrific goaltending, the Devils were arguably the most underperforming side finishing with only 81 points. The addition of Jacob Markstrom should sort out the goaltending woes, and with reasonable injury luck, they could easily finish with 20 more points. Out of the favorites, Keefe is my favorite look, but still, +700 is a little too short to lock in now. If the Devils start strong and that number stays, then I would look to lock it in.
Andrew Brunette is one of the sharper coaches in the NHL and was worthy of being runner-up in last season's vote. He still looks like a fade to me at +900. The Predators are now viewed as a true contender by most mainstream media after their free-agent spending spree, which likely means they'll need a hefty point total for Brunette to get much credit. I'm not convinced Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault will be all that dominant in five-on-five play though, and a team I believe could let down expectations to some extent.
The Oilers are the Stanley Cup favorite and are rostering Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. If they don't win the Presidents' Trophy, Kris Knoblauch has little chance of winning the Jack Adams and is a fade at +1100.
Thanks to the additions of Jake Guentzel and J.J. Moser, the Lightning's roster is arguably better despite losing Mikhail Sergachev and Stamkos. Their reputation as a perennial contender hurts Jon Cooper's chances though, and I find it hard to see them winning the division, which is likely the minimum it would take for Cooper to be considered.
The Capitals have a wide range of outcomes after an offseason that included gambles on Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jakob Chychrun and Andrew Mangiapane, as well as safer additions in Logan Thompson and Matt Roy. Spencer Carbery drew blood from a stone in getting a horrible roster to the playoffs last season, and his roster certainly has far more upside this season.
A goaltending tandem of Thompson and Charlie Lindgren could potentially be one of the better tandems in the league, which could help the team to a surprisingly high regular season point total. Combine that with a deep defensive core, and Carbery's side has a chance to put together a strong regular season.
The Capitals' lack of high-quality offensive talent is the obvious knock on the roster, but if Carbery can get bounce-back seasons out of Dubois and Mangiapane to help solve that weakness though it would likely be viewed as an appealing narrative to voters.
Washington has the upside to finish somewhat high in a fairly open Metropolitan division. If they do, Carbery could be in line to win. For the second straight year, I'll be betting Carbery at anything better than +1700.
FanDuel's outlier price of +4500 for Rod Brind'Amour to win his second Jack Adams award is also worthy of a bet. It's a popular take that this is the season Carolina's run of regular season dominance will finally come to a halt after it lost Brett Pesce, Teuvo Teravainen, Brady Skjei, as well as deadline acquisition Jake Guentzel this offseason.
It'll still take something more like a division win for Brind'Amour to take this award home, but the idea that the Hurricanes roster is now flawed could work in Brind'Amour's favor if they remain a juggernaut this regular season.
Sean Walker and Shayne Gostisbehere look like savvy pickups and the defensive core should remain very strong as a result. With Seth Jarvis' contract situation now resolved, the offensive core remains solid, and Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov could prove to be a strong tandem in goal.
Oddsmakers don't agree with the idea of Carolina falling off too badly though, given its betting total of 100.5 regular season points. I agree with the sentiment that its talent is better than people are crediting and believe that the narrative that the team is going to drop could help one of the most respected coaches in the game.
In my first HL futures preview of the summer, I outlined why Utah is worth backing to sneak into the playoffs; +1700 is not the number I had dreamed of for head coach Andre Tourigny to win this award, but it's still worthy of a smaller wager based on the chance Utah surprises in its inaugural season.
Best Bets: Spencer Carbery (+2000 at DraftKings, play to +1700), Rod Brind'Amour (+4500 at FanDuel, play to +3500), Andre Tourigny (+1700 at FanDuel, play to +1600)
Fades: Andrew Brunette, Kris Knoblauch, Jon Cooper
Calder Trophy – NHL Rookie of the Year
As with most other leagues, it makes sense to wait until we get into the preseason to bet on speculative players in this Rookie of the Year market, though timing the bet accurately is a critical factor.
For the 2024-25 Calder Trophy, which is voted upon by the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA), there aren't many long-shots with much of a case at this point. To me, this market is currently about deciding which of the favorites to lock in.
Matvei Michkov opened at +550 this summer and has slowly trended down to a consensus +400. He's further along in his development than several other prominent rookies, given his 2004 birth year, and he displayed excellent strong offensive play netting 41 points in 47 games on a horrid HC Sochi team last season.
The gap in talent between the KHL and NHL is generally considered wider now than it has been in years past. Still, there's a lot to like about how Michkov's offensive intelligence could translate versus far better defensive players.
There is a risk counting on Michkov to get consistent ice time as he goes through growing pains defensively, but at DraftKings' price of +450, I believe he is still bettable.
The other player I'm backing in this market is another co-favorite, Logan Stankoven at +550 (DraftKings). Stankoven played the maximum amount of regular season games allowable to remain eligible for this award last season at 24. He quickly moved up coach Pete DeBoer's lineup card with dogged play, finishing the playoffs and getting consistent top-six minutes while putting up eight points in 19 games.
Those who watched Stankoven closely in the AHL were confident he could be an impact player right away, and he was exactly that.
He should be a top-six mainstay on a strong Stars side this season, and he should also garner second power-play minutes. He plays far bigger than his size with a strong ability to win puck battles, is excellent at finding pockets of space, and has a strong awareness of where plays will be.
At +550 we are getting a strong number to back a player who has already shown very well at the NHL level.
Bets: Matvei Michkov (+450 at DraftKings, play to +425), Logan Stankoven (+550 at DraftKings, play to +475)
