Anaheim Ducks vs. Detroit Red Wings Odds, Pick, Prediction: John Gibson Gives Road Team the Edge

Ducks at Red Wings Odds

The Anaheim Ducks will take on the Detroit Red Wings tonight at Little Caesars Arena. It’ll be the first time both teams square off this season.

Anaheim has dealt with their fair share of struggles this past month, but are coming back into shape with a solid 5-4-1 record in their last 10 games. They’re coming off a win in Ottawa and will look to make it three in a row on the road.

Detroit is dealing with its own problems now, as they stand outside playoff positioning. In their last 10 they’ve gone 3-4-3, and just came off a loss to the Maple Leafs at home in which they blew a third-period lead. They’ll look to get back to their winning ways against a revitalized Ducks team.

Ducks Bouncing Back from Rough Stretch

When good teams hit a rough patch, it’s always telling to see how they maneuver through it. While the Ducks were struggling through injuries and COVID battles, they weren’t at their best, but held onto a playoff spot. Now they’re near full strength, and are back to their winning ways.

Anaheim has an exciting young core with All-Star Troy Terry, Trevor Zegras, and Sonny Milano (who will be out tonight), and are still led by future Hall of Famer Ryan Getzlaf and Cam Fowler. 

A big part of Anaheim's success is the power play. The Ducks score with the man advantage 25% of the time, tied for seventh-best in the NHL. They don’t drive play as much 5-on-5 as they only have an expected goals per 60 of 2.3 but generate the 10th most high danger chances. That mostly accounts for their exceptional power play. 

Another large part of their success has been their goaltender, because the backend hasn’t been great. The defense has allowed the sixth-most high danger chances and the 13th-most goals.

John Gibson is still a top goaltender in the league, and had it not been for Covid, he’d probably be the starting goaltender for Team USA in the Olympics. The American net-minder missed some time this season, but he’s been a brick wall with a .922 SV% and an 11.5 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected).

Backup Anthony Stolarz has also been a rock in net, but since he played on Thursday, expect Gibson to play Monday.

Red Wings Can Score, But Defense Is Still Lacking

Detroit has surprised people this year. Many believed this would be the last year of a rebuild, but they’re coming in trying to at least push for the playoffs now. Similar to their counterparts, the Wings also have an incredible young core of talent. Led by captain Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi, plus sensational rookies Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, Detroit is no longer a pushover.

Even with a core that scores a lot, the Red Wings aren’t exactly top play drivers. They’re ranked 20th with an expected goals per 60 of 2.27, although they do create a decent amount of high danger chances. The power play, however, isn’t their forte, where they only score 16.4% of the time, seventh worst in the league.

On defense, the Wings aren’t exactly great either. Detroit lets up the  most high danger chances in the NHL, and the fourth most goals, which is a main reason why they aren’t a surefire playoff team just yet.

Alex Nedeljkovic has been a fine net-minder for the Wings. With a defense with that many holes, there’s so much that you can do. So I’d say it’s pretty impressive for him to be posting a .910 SV% and a 5.0 GSAx.

His backup Thomas Greiss has been out with injury, and Calvin Pickard has filled in just fine. Pickard played the last two games, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Nedeljkovic gets this game.

Ducks vs. Red Wings Pick

This seems like a game that has potential to include loads of scoring. With Detroit’s Swiss cheese defense, I can see young guns like Terry and Zegras breaking through with a few goals. But I also believe that Gibson can give the Red Wings headaches, so it seems like a perfect storm  for the Ducks to come on top.

I went back and forth between the over and Anaheim moneyline. In the end, I’ll back the Ducks with the big edge in net.

Pick: Anaheim Ducks -105