Arizona Coyotes vs. Philadelphia Flyers Odds
- Coyotes odds: +130
- Flyers odds: -150
- Over/Under: 5.5
- Time: Thursday, 7 p.m. ET
There's no secret to the Arizona Coyotes' modest success this season. No team in the NHL allows fewer goals against per 60 minutes (5-on-5, score + venue adjusted) than the well-structured Coyotes.
Goaltender Darcy Kuemper leads the charge for the Coyotes, but the defense deserves credit as well. Kuemper leads the NHL with a .936 save percentage and is second in the circuit with a 9.45 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). Those numbers are terrific, but Kuemper's .942 expected save percentage is the ninth-highest among goaltenders (min. 300 shots against).
The Coyotes make no mistake about the type of team they are trying to be. Arizona lacks scoring talent, and Phil Kessel — the team's best scorer — has struggled to just four goals on the season. Only one Coyote, Conor Garland, has 10 goals on the season.
It isn't just poor shooting luck that is keeping Arizona's offense quiet. The team just doesn't create enough quality scoring opportunities on a consistent basis. On the season, the Desert Dogs rank 27th in the NHL with an average of 8.96 high-danger chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
The good news is that Arizona's offense doesn't need to do the heavy lifting. This is a team built to grind out 2-1 or 3-2 wins. The Coyotes rank inside the top 10 in expected goals against and high-danger chances against per hour (5-on-5) and do a terrific job at keeping teams to the outside.
The Flyers come into Thursday night riding a five-game winning streak and are 6-2-2 over their last 10 games. Philadelphia profiles as a solid, if not great, team. It ranks 13th in the league in expected goals and 12th in high-danger chance scoring chance share. This team isn't going to blow you away with its numbers, but the Flyers aren't sinking themselves either.
The same logic can be applied to the Coyotes, though they approach the game in a different way. In fact, I don't think there's very much separating these two teams, especially with Brian Elliott slated to start in goal for the Flyers on Thursday. Arizona and Philadelphia are playoff contenders, but nobody will confuse them for being elite.
Given their ability to slow games down to a slog and their edge in goaltending, I'm happy to take the Coyotes in a game that profiles to be closer to a coin flip than these odds imply. The listed odds give the Flyers a 58% chance of winning on Thursday night. I think that number is a tad high and would suggest a play on Arizona at +125 or better.
