Tonight’s NHL slate features only four games, but that is more than enough to find some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool, as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are three props I’m eyeing for games at 7:30, and 10:00 p.m. ET.
Senators C Matt Duchene under 2.5 shots on goal
7:30 p.m. ET
We discussed on Inside the Lab how important this game is for Pittsburgh's playoff seeding, so it could be a frustrating night for an Ottawa team who is 2-8-0 over their past 10 games and has struggled mightily most of the season. This line looks a bit high, as Pittsburgh has allowed a slate-low 39.8 Corsi (14th percentile in shot attempts allowed) over the past month, and Duchene has averaged only 2.53 shots per game over that same time period. At even money, Duchene under his monthly average is the clear lean.
Penguins C Sidney Crosby over 3 shots on goal
7:30 p.m. ET
Luckily for Crosby and the Penguins, the matchup is favorable against the Senators, who are allowing the highest Corsi on the slate over the past month. Crosby has averaged 3.57 and 2.98 shots on goal over the past month and year, good enough for the 97th and 93rd percentile in both categories. The Penguins also own the top Expected Corsi For today, so Crosby over 3.0 shots on goal is more than reasonable. He has registered three or more shots in 10 of his past 14 games.
Stars W Jamie Benn over 2.5 shots on goal
10:00 p.m. ET
Benn has averaged 3.29 shots over the past month (96th percentile), yet somehow his prop is set at 2.5 today in a fantastic matchup against Anaheim (95th percentile in shot attempts allowed). Over the past year, Benn’s long-term average of 2.95 stands out as well, so this looks like a prime opportunity to attack a weak line in a pristine matchup. He’s failed to register three or more shots on goal in only four of his past 14 games.
Pictured above: Sidney Crosby
Photo credit: Charles LeClaire-USA Today Sports
