Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
In this piece, I’ll highlight my favorite NHL player prop for Game 4 of the St. Louis Blues-San Jose Sharks series. NOTE: I might update this piece as the market develops.
Early in 2019, I wasn’t particularly sharp on hockey — that’s reflected in my year-to-date NHL record below — but in the postseason I’ve had success.
Since I started making my own projections and publishing postseason NHL prop articles, I’m a robust 48-26-2 (+18.79).
For up-to-the-minute lines, check out our live betting odds page.
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2019 Year-to-Date Record
794-589-43, +125.85 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 385-285-7, +50.94 Units
- NHL: 114-106-9, +11.22 Units
- MLB: 48-54-13, -11.07 Units
- Golf: 9-9-2, +2.30 Units
- NASCAR: 11-17-0, -5.77 Units
- NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
- Horse Racing: 1-0-0, +0.04 Units
San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues Betting Odds
- Sharks: +120
- Blues: -140
- Over: 5.5 (-115)
- Under: 5.5 (-105)
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- TV: NBCSN
Sharks LW Evander Kane: Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130)
Now that we’re in Game 4 of the series, the widespread value that we saw in the earlier games is gone. Right now, there's only one player prop that I'm willing to bet — the Kane over.
And here's the thing: I bet the Kane over in Games 1-3.
And in each game, I lost.
There's no question that the Blues are a diligent defensive team. In the regular season, they held opponents to 28.6 shots on goal per game. In the playoffs, that number has bumped up slightly to 28.9, but the Blues are still one of the best teams in the league at limiting shots.
But my projections already take into account the matchup: In their 99 games this season (including playoffs), the Sharks have averaged 32.7 shots, but I have them projected for significantly fewer attempts in Game 4. And that team-wide decrease in volume is factored into Kane's projection.
Maybe I'm missing something else obvious about Kane's matchup — something that explains why he totaled just four shots in Games 1-3 — but I'm still bullish on him tonight.
Kane is a shooter. In his 92 games this year (including playoffs), Kane has averaged 3.43 shots. And in his two regular-season games against the Blues, Kane respectively had four and three shots.
He has just seven over his past five games, but he seems likely to progress to the mean. Kane is too aggressive of a player not to get his scoring opportunities at some point.
I have him projected for 3.15 shots and would bet the over to -160.
And I fully expect to lose this bet for the fourth straight game.
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
