Panthers vs. Lightning Odds
| Panthers Odds | +123 |
| Lightning Odds | -143 |
| Over/Under | 6 |
| Time | Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CNBC |
| Odds as of Friday night via DraftKings. | |
Game three between the Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning is likely the game of the postseason so far. The Panthers came out on fire after dropping the first two games at home.
However, their 2-0 first period lead was short lived. The Lightning scored five in the second period and had a 5-3 lead entering the final stanza. At this point, it would have been understandable if the Panthers completely folded. However, the opposite happened as they tied the game in the third and then won it in overtime.
Many wrote the Panthers off after they dropped the first two games of this series at home. However, if you look at the underlying metrics, you’d realize the Panthers are very much in this series and could just as easily be the team with the advantage.
Will the defending cup champions defend home ice in game four or will the Panthers be able to even the series on the road?
Panthers Dominating Expected Goals Despite Record
Through three games in this series, the Florida Panthers have actually won the expected goal battle in every game. They possess a 7.2 to 4.9 expected goals advantage through three games.
Additionally, Florida has generated 29 high danger chances compared to 18 for the Lightning. Game three was their best performance to date, as they won the expected goal battle 2.76 to 1.57 (63.9%).
The Tampa Bay Lightning have 13 goals in the playoffs but only six of those have come at 5-on-5. The Panthers should consider staying out of the penalty box, as the Lightning powerplay is hitting at a 50 percent clip. Nikita Kucherov has four of his five points on the man advantage.
The Panthers have actually done a good job of containing Kucherov at even strength. Kucherov along with linemates Brayden Point and Ondrej Palat are playing to an expected goal rate of 50%. In the 2020 playoffs, this trio played to an expected goal rate of near 62% en route to winning the Stanley Cup.
Unfortunately for the Panthers, their biggest question mark is still a huge question mark as we head into game four. Sergei Bobrovsky started the series, but gave up five goals in game one. He was replaced by Chris Driedger who lost a low-scoring affair in game two.
Driedger got the call again in game three, but was replaced by Bobrovsky in the third period after getting beat five times through the first two.
Bobrovsky will likely get the start again in game four after earning the win in relief. However, the handsomely paid Russian netminder has not come close to meeting expectations for the Panthers.
He posted a -8.1 goals saved above expectation mark through 31 games while losing his starting job for stretches of the season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
When betting on playoff games, bettors often tend to put a lot of value into what a result in a single game would mean for the series as a whole. It’s human nature to look at this game and say, “There's no way the defending champions are going to lose back-to-back games at home and give the Panthers back home-ice advantage.”
However, buying into narratives and putting too much stock into situations is dangerous. That narrative is already priced into this line.
The Lightning actually have a better road record in the playoffs over the past five seasons than they do at home, so overstating their home ice advantage is unnecessary.
Let’s not forget that the Lightning are eight months removed from winning the Cup, so there’s a lot of miles on the legs of these players in a shorter than usual period of time.
The Panthers were the better team during the regular season and have at worst matched the Lightning all series long. Their top three lines are all playing to an expected goal rate of 55% or better. Two of them are at more than 68 percent
If Florida can get competent goaltending from Bobrovsky, I don’t see much between these teams at all. I’d look towards the Panthers at +120 or better.
Pick: Florida ML (+124)
