I had a great 2018 betting on props, thanks primarily to our FantasyLabs Tools, so for 2019 I am publishing a quick-n’-dirty daily piece in which I highlight one of my favorite props for the day.
A quick note on props: When a line is terribly wrong, I usually don’t even get the chance to write about it, because the line will have corrected by the time most people read the piece.
So the props I’ve written about this year haven’t truly been my favorites or the ones in which I’ve most heavily invested. Rather, they’ve been ones that offer an edge but not one that’s obvious or large enough to be immediately exploited by the market.
That distinction might not matter to some readers, but I want to be transparent about that.
For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
6-8-1, -1.45 Units
- Golf: 1-1-0, +0.25 Units
- NFL: 2-3-0, -0.65 Units
- NBA: 0-2-0, -2.0 Units
- NHL: 3-1-1, +1.95 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet for Sunday, Jan. 13: Dougie Hamilton Shots on Goal Over/Under 3.0
The Pick: Under (-115)
This is a bonus pick, in addition to the Antonio Gates 2.0 receptions prop: On Saturday, we had a bad beat with the Collin Delia 29.5 saves prop, and I want to get the memory of that particular hockey bet out of my mind as quickly as possible.
Sunday's NHL action starts with the Hurricanes-Predators games (12:30 p.m. ET), and Carolina defenseman Dougie Hamilton has a prop I like.
The Hurricanes are first in the league with 35.93 shots per game, and Hamilton is averaging 3.18 shots on goal. Yet in our FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Hamilton projected for just 1.8 shots.
Why do we like the under so much?
The Predators have held opponents to the fourth-fewest shots on goal this year at 28.67 per game.
Additionally, over the past month, Hamilton has just 2.47 shots per game as his time on ice has been cut to an average of 17.74 minutes (per our FantasyLabs NHL Models).
Hamilton enjoyed a boost in playing time in November and December, seeing nine straight games with at least 20 minutes on the ice and he averaging 3.33 shots per game over that span. But in the 16 games since, his ice time has been reduced to an average of 17:46 and he's managed only 2.38 shots per game.
Playing on the third line and second power play against a team that doesn't surrender many shots, Hamilton looks like a good bet to hit the under.
This line is available at Bovada. At 3.0, I would bet it down to -135. If it dropped to 2.5, I'd want plus odds.
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
