Vegas will attempt to take a 3-1 lead tonight when it takes the ice in Game 4 against Florida.
Behind another strong defensive showing, the Knights were 2:13 from securing a 3-0 series stranglehold. But that was before another timely goal from Matthew Tkachuk.
A similar performance from the Knights tonight would give this parlay a real chance.
Check out my same game parlay for Panthers vs. Golden Knights Game 4 below.
Same Game Parlay: Golden Knights vs. Panthers Game 4
The Parlay (+400 bet365):
- Vegas Moneyline
- Adin Hill Under 29.5 Saves
- Matthew Tkachuk Under 3.5 Shots on Goal
Golden Knights Moneyline
Based upon their postseason play prior to this series, the Knights were a worthy favorite to close out an impressive cup run. Meanwhile, the Panthers were a team that clearly ran with some favorable luck.
The three opening matchups of this series don't make me see anything differently.
Florida's edge in this series lies in goal with Sergei Bobrovsky, but that strength has been somewhat negated due to a strong net-front presence from the Golden Knights.
If Adin Hill can continue to save the chances he's supposed to, the Knights should be in great shape.
The Panthers will likely be able to play a more disciplined game tonight and spend less time in the penalty box, but the case remains that Vegas should be a favorite.
The Knights possess a better defensive core than the Panthers, and a number of excellent two-way forwards to help insulate that unit.
They were a better defensive team than the Panthers in the three rounds leading up to this point, and that has remained the case in this series.
Vegas has played to a 52.74% expected goals rating in the first three games, and I believe that mark is fair. It's been the better team in transition and is controlling the neutral zone effectively.
Since Florida hasn't outplayed Vegas on special teams, it really comes down to how much better Bobrovsky will be than Hill.
Adin Hill Under 29.5 Saves
If Vegas is to win tonight, it should come behind a strong defensive performance and in a lower-scoring game.
Outside of a more wide open Game 1 matchup, Vegas has looked sharp in terms of chance suppression. Hill has averaged just 27.66 saves in this series and faced just 23 shots in Game 2.
Vegas has played the majority of the series with the lead, and we shouldn't worry about a game script — where the Knights play from in front — leading to significantly higher shot totals for the Panthers.
Matthew Tkachuk Under 3.5 Shots on Goal
Betting against Tkachuk in terms of shots on goal is by no means a fun sweat. He's trending well below 3.5, however, and isn't necessarily a fan of burning pointless shots on goal.
The Knights have protected the dirty areas well in this series, which hurts the chances of Tkachuk going over.
He has just nine shots on goal in the series and 16 shot attempts.
