Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.
For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
18-16-3, +9.23 Units
- Golf: 2-3-1, -0.70 Units
- NFL: 5-5-0, +6.83 Units
- NBA: 6-5-0, +0.30 Units
- NHL: 5-2-2, +3.80 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Favorite NHL Matchup for Tuesday, Jan. 29: David Pastrnak vs. Patrice Bergeron
- David Pastrnak: -145
- Patrice Bergeron: +115
We have a great three-game NHL slate tonight that starts with a matchup between the Jets and Bruins (7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN+).
Specifically, the head-to-head matchup between Boston teammates David Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron looks exploitable.
The wing and center both play on the first forward and power-play lines, so there's a good deal of correlation between them: There's a high probability that this matchup will end with a push.
But over the past year and past month, Bergeron has been the more productive per-game player (per the FantasyLabs NHL Models).
- Bergeron: 1.18 points (year) | 0.91 points (month)
- Pastrnak: 1.15 points (year) | 0.82 points (month)
For the season, Bergeron has 1.24 points per game to Pastrnak's 1.14.
And since Bruce Cassidy was made head coach in February 2017, Bergeron and Pastrnak have averaged an identical 1.05 points per game (including playoffs).
Bergeron offers good value at plus odds.
I'd bet him all the way down to +100.
The Pick: Bergeron (+115) to score more points
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
