Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.
For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
39-27-3, +14.44 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 8-7-0, +0.30 Units
- NHL: 6-3-2, +3.71 Units
- Golf: 2-3-1, -0.70 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
- Exotics: 2-0-0. +0.40 Units
Freedman’s Favorite NHL Matchup for Tuesday, Feb. 5: Nico Hischier vs. Kyle Palmieri, More Points
- Nico Hischier: +155
- Kyle Palmieri: -190
We have a wonderfully large 12-game NHL slate on Tuesday night that starts with a matchup between the Devils and Kings (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+).
There are a number of juicy player props for this game, but the head-to-head matchup between New Jersey teammates Nico Hischier and Kyle Palmieri looks especially exploitable.
The wing and center both play on the first forward and power-play lines, so they are correlated: This bet could easily end with a push.
But I really like Hischier. Over the past year, he and Palmieri have been comparable (per the FantasyLabs NHL Models).
- Hischier: 0.70 points per game, 17.27 time on ice, 12.99 Corsi For
- Palmieri: 0.77 points per game, 17.9 time on ice, 12.23 Corsi For
Over the past month, Hischier has easily been the superior player.
- Hischier: 0.73 points per game, 17.88 time on ice, 11.67 Corsi For
- Palmieri: 0.36 points per game, 17.79 time on ice, 10.78 Corsi For
In his 47 games this season, Hischier has 0.77 points per game. As for Palmieri, he has an average of 0.78 across 51 games.
As a significant underdog, Hischier offers great head-to-head value.
I’d bet on him all the way down to +110.
The Pick: Hischier (+155)
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
