Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
In this piece, I’ll highlight my favorite NHL player props for Game 4 of the Carolina Hurricanes-Boston Bruins series. NOTE: I might update this piece as the market develops.
Early in 2019, I wasn’t particularly sharp on hockey — that’s reflected in my year-to-date NHL record below — but in the postseason I’ve had success.
Since I started making my own projections and publishing postseason NHL prop articles, I’m a robust 45-23-2 (+18.74).
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2019 Year-to-Date Record
787-583-42, +125.34 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 382-283-7, +50.53 Units
- NHL: 111-103-9, +11.17 Units
- MLB: 47-53-12, -11.12 Units
- Golf: 9-9-2, +2.30 Units
- NASCAR: 11-17-0, -5.77 Units
- NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
- Horse Racing: 1-0-0, +0.04 Units
Boston Bruins at Carolina Hurricanes Betting Odds
- Bruins: -113
- Hurricanes: +102
- Over: 5.5 (+105)
- Under: 5.5 (-125)
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- TV: NBCSN
Boston Bruins Player Props
Bruins LW Jake DeBrusk: Under 2.5 shots (-125)
Now that we're in Game 4 of the series, the widespread value that we saw in the earlier games is gone. For the most part, the lines have been adjusted appropriately.
Plus, it's hard to know how this game will play out given that the Bruins have a 3-0 series lead.
But I’ve had success this series by aggressively betting Boston unders, and I still think that DeBrusk has an inflated prop.
He has averaged 3.06 shots per game in the playoffs, but in the regular season he had just 2.29, and the matchup is tough.
During the regular season, the Hurricanes held opponents to the third-fewest shots on goal per game at 28.6, and in the playoffs they have somehow lowered that mark to 27.9.
The Bruins are an aggressive team and have fired 34.3 shots per game in the playoffs, but the Hurricanes have the type of defensive unit that can limit any team's volume.
I am projecting DeBrusk for 2.09 shots and would bet the under to -145.
UPDATED: Additional Bruins Player Props
- David Pastrnak over 2.5 shots on goal: -145, bet to -155, projected for 3.01
- David Krejci under 1.5 shots on goal: +110, bet to -105, projected for 1.43
Carolina Hurricanes Player Props
Hurricanes RW Teuvo Teravainen: Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-115)
Although Teravainen has averaged 2.57 shots per game in the postseason, during the regular season he shot fewer than 2.5 in 59 of 82 games (71.95%).
I expect some regression and have him projected for 2.11 shots: In Games 1-3, he averaged 1.33 shots per game. I’d bet the under to -140.
Hurricanes LW Nino Niederreiter: Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+125)
For the postseason, Niederreiter’s shot average has dropped to exactly two per game, but in the regular season he had a mark of 2.86.
I have Niederreiter projected for 2.42 shots, so I wouldn't bet this any lower than +110. But I do like the over at plus money for a prop that is close to a coin flip.
Hurricanes C Jordan Staal: Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-140)
In the regular season, Staal fired two-plus shots in 36 of 50 games (72.0%). In the playoffs, though, he’s averaged just 1.29, and in Games 1-3 he had 1.33 shots per game.
But I anticipate that he will progress toward his regular-season mark of 2.42 and have him projected for 2.07. I’d bet the over to -160.
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
