Kings vs. Oilers Odds: Game 5
| Kings Odds | +180 |
| Oilers Odds | -210 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (-110/-110) |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
| Odds via WynnBET. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
Game 5 of the first-round Stanley Cup Playoffs series between the Kings and the Oilers is set for Tuesday night following Los Angeles' 4-0 win over Edmonton in Game 4.
Both goaltenders were excellent in the last matchup. Will Mike Smith and Jonathan Quick keep up the excellent work between the pipes? Or can the goal-scoring pick up in Game 5?
Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles will look to take a 3-2 series lead in Edmonton before heading back home for Game 6.
The Kings' best chances rest on the shoulders of Quick, who was excellent in Game 4, stopping 31-of-31 shots to shut out the Oilers. Quick has now stopped 110-of-123 shot attempts in this series for a 0.894 save percentage. Despite misleading surface level numbers, Quick has been terrific in net with a game average of +0.17 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
I expect even more positive regression from Quick considering he was one of the league's best goaltenders this season. Among starting goaltenders, he boasts a +0.5 five-on-five GSAx per 60 minutes.
The Kings defense should be able to help out Quick as they have one of the league's better blue lines. During the regular season, they ranked 11th in five-on-five expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA).
Furthermore, Los Angeles has seemed to find a possible answer to combatting Connor McDavid and Lion Draisaitl. In Game 4, Kings head coach Todd McLellan switched up the forward lines and produced a defensive-focused Trevor Moore/Phillip Danault/Carl Grundstrom line.
While this line generated multiple points in Game 4, they did an even better job shutting down McDavid/Draisaitl as Danault continues to prove to be one of the better two-way centers in the league. In Game 4, this line allowed only 0.21 xGA when on the ice.
Edmonton Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers will look to grab their revenge on home ice and take a 3-2 series lead before heading back on the road for Game 6.
Smith will continue to keep up his excellent play in stopping the Kings offense — he has stopped 147-of-156 shot attempts for a stellar 0.942 save percentage in this series. Over those four games, he has produced a game average of +1.25 GSAx.
While it is fair to assume there would be regression looming for Smith, his numbers over the last month of the regular season suggest that he could keep up this outstanding play. Over his nine starts in April, Smith stopped 294-of-309 shots for an immaculate 0.951 save percentage.
You have heard from his teammates and coaching staff throughout the season's final run that this was the first time Smith was truly healthy in net, which is why he was able to catch fire to end the season. While I do think slight regression is coming for Smith, I still expect him to put up excellent numbers through the rest of the series.
Kings vs. Oilers Pick
In the most important game of this series thus far, I expect this game to be an absolute battle in which scoring chances will have to be earned. Both of these goaltenders have been excellent — add that to the tension that will be existent in Rogers Place, and I like this game to stay under the total.
I expect Game 5 to play out similarly to Game 4, when physical play dominated. I do not expect this total to drop to 6.0 before puck drop, but if It does, I would not play the under at that total.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-110) | Bet to -125
