NHL betting analyst Nicholas Martin has found three plays ahead of Friday’s pivotal Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche.
From a total to two player props, Martin has you covered for Game 5 below.
Andrei Vasilevskiy Over 33.5 Saves · -120 (Play to -125)
Colorado has played at a pace nobody in the league can match all season, and the result has been a ridiculous amount of shots on goal.
In Game 4, we saw the Avalanche take some time to fully settle in, but by the time overtime came around, it was a full-blown onslaught. With the Cup in the building Friday, I expect Colorado to come out firing.
Colorado managed 34.6 shots on goal in the two series-opening contests in Denver, but that average came with Game 2 being an early blowout. Essentially, Colorado didn't need to press for more offense.
I think Tampa Bay will hang around in this one and make it a game, but it's hard to see Colorado not generating a ton of attempts on goal and sticking to its high-tempo style of play.
Valeri Nichushkin Anytime Point · -130 (Play to -140)
Wherever Nichushkin has slotted into the Colorado lineup this postseason he has been quietly brilliant. He was effective again in Game 4 on a newly-formed unit with Gabriel Landeskog and Nazem Kadri, which controlled play to a 73.1 xGF%.
Nichushkin is one of the better forecheckers in the entire league right now, and his intelligent, aggressive puck-pursuit has generated a ton of opportunities for his side all series.
I suggested playing this in Game 4 at -140, and it was simply unlikely to miss considering what Nichushkin created, including a would-be game-winning assist on Bowen Byram's crossbar shot in overtime.
We are now getting a price of -130 in a spot where I feel Colorado is far more likely to generate three or more goals compared to Tampa Bay.
Under 6 · -115 (Play to -120)
For an elimination game featuring this Lightning squad, a total of 6 at nearly even money seems to be worth a play — even if this Avalanche team is a different animal.
In four elimination games this postseason, the Lightning have played to an average of just 3.75 combined goals per contest, with the under going 3-1.
Those numbers are consistent with what we saw last season.
While I don't expect Tampa to control the run of play, I do think it will strive to keep the game as battened down as possible. The Lightning will attempt to keep five players below the puck as much as possible and try to let Vasilevskiy steal this contest by making a lot of saves on shots of acceptable quality.
Darcy Kuemper was very steady in Game 4. Should he play reasonably well again tonight, I think that will likely mean a low offensive output for the Bolts considering Colorado's tremendous defense throughout the playoffs.
