The 2019-20 NHL season gets underway on Wednesday, Oct. 2, so it's time to start putting together a portfolio of future bets for the upcoming season.
Given that the NHL isn't as popular as other sports like the NFL, college football or the NBA, the betting market for hockey isn't as efficient. That holds true for on both a game-by-game basis and in the futures market.
FanDuel has released odds for end-of-the-season awards and there's some really good value on the board for the following props:
- Hart Trophy (MVP)
- Rocket Richard Trophy (Top goalscorer)
- Vezina Trophy (Top goaltender)
- Jack Adams Award (Coach of the Year)
Let's take a look:
2019-20 Hart Trophy Odds, Pick
The Favorite: Connor McDavid (+390)
No shocker here. McDavid is the best player in the NHL and is just 22 years old, so he is just entering his prime. The former No. 1 overall pick has put up at least 100 points three seasons on the spin and set career highs with 116 points and 75 assists in 2018-19.
If McDavid stays healthy he almost certainly will be among the three Hart nominees in June, but tying up money on odds as short as these for a whole season is not my style.
The other problem is that McDavid plays for the Oilers, who aren't projected to be a contender this season. It's very rare that the MVP will come from a team that doesn't make the postseason.
Other favorites:Nikita Kucherov (6-1), Sidney Crosby (+750), Alex Ovechkin (11-1), Auston Matthews (12-1)
Best Value: Alexsander Barkov (60-1)
Betting the chalk for the Hart Trophy has not been a wise move as the MVP bounces around a lot more in the NHL than it does in other leagues. Over the past 10 seasons, there have been eight first-time winners, including in each of the past five seasons. That isn't to say that players come out of nowhere to win the award, but the list of potential winners is a lot longer than one would assume.
That's why I'm targeting a relative longshot in what figures to be a wide-open race, despite McDavid's status as a clear favorite.
Aleksander Barkov has been one of the league's most effective 200-foot players and is widely considered as the most underrated player in the NHL. Last season, the 24-year-old Finn posted career highs in goals (35), assists (61) and points (96).
Barkov kills penalties, plays on the power play and is a 5-on-5 monster, averaging 2.35 Points Per 60 minutes while playing against the opposition's best players.
Playing in a small market could hurt Barkov's chances, but that's also providing the value here. If Barkov was playing on the Maple Leafs or Blackhawks, his odds would be a lot shorter.
The Panthers should contend for a playoff spot, so that should help alleviate the small-market syndrome. I do expect Barkov to be a trendy sleeper pick for the award, but I think he's worth an investment at any number longer than 40-1.
Rocket Richard Trophy
The Favorite: Alex Ovechkin (+650)
Ovechkin has won the award eight times, including six of the last seven years, so it's no wonder he's the only player listed with single-digit odds.
Unlike the Hart Trophy, the Rocket Richard is more predictable. Only four players (Ovechkin, Crosby, Steven Stamkos and Corey Perry) have won the award since 2008.
Best Value: Viktor Arvidsson (140-1)
This is a pretty simple pick, as the odds here are just outrageous. Arvidsson may lack the name recognition of plenty of the favorites atop this list, but he's a proven goalscorer at triple-digit odds.
Arvidsson launched himself onto the scene with a 31-goal season in 2016-17 and then backed that up with a 29-goal campaign in '18-19. The diminutive Swede took an even bigger step forward last year, posting 34 goals in just 58 games. That is a 49-goal pace over a full season, which would have landed Arvidsson in third place on the Rocket Richard list.
Arvidsson's shooting percentage (17.4%) should regress some, but I'll gladly take triple-digit odds on a proven goal scorer with serious upside.
Vezina Trophy
The Favorite: Andrei Vasilveskiy (+450)
Vasilevskiy's detractors calling him an undeserving winner of this award in 2018-19 is probably a bit harsh. The 25-year-old posted a .925 save percentage in 53 games and helped the Lightning to the best regular season record in a generation. His peripheral numbers may have not been as strong as some other netminders, but voters for this award put a lot of stock in wins.
The Russian has a great chance to lead the NHL in that category again in 2019-20, but his workload shouldn't get out of control since the Lightning made an effort to upgrade their backup goaltender with the signing of Curtis McIlhinney.
Other Favorites:Frederik Andersen (7-1), Ben Bishop (+950), Sergei Bobrovsky (12-), Marc-Andre Fleury (12-1)
Best bet: John Gibson (26-1)
I find it offensive that John Gibson has the same odds as Martin Jones to win this award.
Considering that Gibson is considered by plenty of people to be the best goalie in the league, this price is ludicrous. Over the last three seasons, Gibson boasts a +45.04 Goals Saved Above Average (third in the NHL) and a .930 save percentage at 5-on-5.
Given how this award is voted on, I get that Gibson is not listed among the favorites. To win his first Vezina, the 26-year-old will need his teammates to help him out by contending for a playoff spot. That is a big ask as the Ducks are among the biggest longshots in the NHL this season.
It would be very out-of-character for this award to go to a goalie on a bad team, but if the Ducks can be relevant, Gibson is live at great odds.
If this award was simply handed to the best goalie in the NHL, these odds would look drastically different.
Jack Adams Award Odds, Pick
The Favorites: Joel Quenneville (+650), John Hynes (+650)
After leading the Chicago Blackhawks to three Stanley Cups in the last decade, Coach Q will take over behind the bench in Florida. The Panthers should contend for a playoff spot in the Atlantic Division and if they succeed, expect Quenneville to be heaped with praise.
Last year, the Devils finished in the basement of the Metropolitan Division and had the second-worst record in the Eastern Conference. New Jersey should be much improved in 2019-20, though, as the Devils drafted first overall, traded for P.K. Subban and Nikita Gusev and already have a former MVP in Taylor Hall.
It makes sense that both Quenneville and Hynes top the odds for this award as the Panthers and Devils both fit the "bounce-back team" profile that often earns the coach a trophy.
Other favorites:David Quinn (+750), Jared Bednar (+1000)
Best Value: John Tortorella (43-1)
Barry Trotz won the 2018-19 Jack Adams Trophy after leading the Islanders on a surprising playoff run after the Isles lost their best player, John Tavares, to free agency.
Tortorella's task with Columbus isn't too far off from Trotz's last season on Long Island. Not only did the Jackets lose their best forwards, Artemi Panarin and Matt Duchene, but they also lost stand-out goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, too.
I don't expect Columbus to be as bad as people expect. The Blue Jackets were among the best defensive teams in the NHL down the stretch last season and their terrific defense remains intact.
A playoff berth for Columbus isn't out of the question (they are +210 to make the postseason at PointsBet) and, given the narrative surrounding the Blue Jackets heading into 2019-20, just making the tournament could be enough to see these long odds cash.
