Here are my NHL best bets for tonight.
It's another big NHL Saturday slate. We've got 14 hockey games featuring 28 teams in action.
However, I'm focusing on two games and two picks, including two moneyline plays, for the daylong hockey marathon. Check out both of the picks and analysis below.
NHL Best Bets Tonight
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NHL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NHL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rangers vs. Senators
No team has underperformed its preseason expectations as badly as the Senators this season. One of the greatest reasons why is they have found ways to lose games despite lengthy periods of entirely dominant play. Whether it be overtime and one-goal losses, horrific goaltending or untimely breakdowns, you can count on Ottawa to find a way to lose.
At some point though, it is still hard to believe the Senators will not be able to turn their dominant ability to create chances into more wins.
The actual results recently have been encouraging, as the Senators have put up a 3-0-2 record, with all three wins in regulation and a +7 goal differential. They easily could've emerged victorious Wednesday versus the Eastern Conference-leading Bruins with any puck luck, nearly scoring in 3-on-3 prior to a quick transition the other way for Brad Marchand's winner.
Over the last 10 games, Ottawa has played to a 54.76% expected goal rating. In the last five games, the Senators own a 64.64% expected goal share, which is the top mark in the league.
Shane Pinto has looked excellent since returning to the lineup Jan. 21, and he has the potential to be among the very best third line centers in the NHL this season. Rookie Ridly Greig has looked excellent on Tim Stützle's wing as well, and more than ever the Senators' offensive core looks so much better than their record entails.
The Rangers, meanwhile, continue to play relatively middling hockey at even strength, a flaw that has been exposed recently as their power play is not stealing games like we saw throughout December and their goaltending has been far less dominant than usual.
New York does deserve credit for actually finding ways to win close games this season. Jonathan Quick still has to be offering some edge over either of Joonas Korpisalo or Anton Forsberg in goal, too.
That being said, it's hard to pass on a +104 underdog that in all likelihood is going to carry the majority of the play, particularly with the Rangers skating in leg two of a back-to-back. Betting the Senators at anything better than -105 presents value in this one.
Pick: Senators ML (+104 | Play to -105)
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Golden Knights vs. Red Wings
Totals of 5.5 are quite rare in the NHL these days, and nothing about this matchup screams low total to me. Hopefully some 5.5's hang around at a playable number for most of Saturday morning, but even if that isn't the case, I would still bet the Over 6 to -115.
Neither of these teams have defended well at all recently, but have been able to hide that flaw with unsustainably strong goaltending. Both have demonstrated the ability to finish off quality chances at an above-average rate this season, and have been opportunistic in goal of late.
In the last 1o games, the Red Wings have allowed 3.43 expected goals against per 60, which is the eighth-highest mark in the league. Alex Lyon continues to make his case for being the league's most underrated goalie, but we still shouldn't count on the Red Wings receiving a .928 save percentage moving forward from their goalies, as they have received over the last 10.
The Golden Knights have thoroughly displayed their ability to counter the run of play with opportunistic goal-scoring over their Eastern road swing. They continue to effectively force tough saves for the opposition's goalie with high-level plays through the middle of the ice, and they also do a good job of getting bodies to the front of the net.
Vegas is playing with a ton of quality play-drivers out of the lineup, though, which has resulted in far less spectacular defensive play than we are used to seeing. In the last 10 games, the Golden Knights have allowed 3.22 xGA/60. In the first three games of this road trip, they have allowed 38, 42 and 38 shots against, respectively — although game scripts did play a factor.
The Red Wings are in good form currently on the offensive side and have displayed strong finishing capabilities all season long. They have scored 3.48 goals per game this season, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league.
Even if we believe Detroit is due for regression to its 11.98% shooting percentage moving forward, I can't see how the betting totals for this matchup aren't higher and believe the correct total would be 6 with the Over juiced to -130.
Pick: Over 5.5 (-134 | Play Over 6 to -115)
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