Check out our NHL best bets today for Thursday, January 11 – our top hockey picks and predictions.
The Action Network's hockey experts have compiled their predictions and favorite betting picks for tonight's big 13-game slate, and they're targeting many of the games.
The action kicks off at 7 p.m. ET, and we've got four picks, including our NHL best bets for:
- Senators vs. Sabres
- Canucks vs. Penguins
- Maple Leafs vs. Islanders
- Blackhawks vs. Jets
Check out all of tonight's predictions below.
(ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for tonight's NHL action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.)
NHL Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NHL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NHL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Senators vs. Sabres
By Tony Sartori
A tilt between the two bottom-feeders of the Atlantic Division gets underway on Thursday evening with the seventh-place Buffalo Sabres hosting the eighth-place Ottawa Senators. We are are going to specifically target Buffalo forward Tage Thompson to find the back of the net in this contest against one of the worst defensive teams in hockey.
At 5-on-5, Ottawa ranks 27th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Its surface-level stats follow suit, with the Sens ranking 29th in goals allowed per game.
Part of the reason that ranking is even lower is that this team not only struggles at even-strength, but it's a mess in terms of special teams as well. Not only does Ottawa rank 31st in penalty minutes per game, but it also ranks 31st in penalty kill percentage.
That is obviously a disastrous combination, and poor goaltending has not been able to bail the team out. Joonas Korpisalo is expected to guard the cage for the Senators on Thursday, and he has struggled behind this defensively weak group.
Through 24 appearances in the crease, Korpisalo is 7-14 with a .887 SV% and 3.67 GAA. Entering this matchup in particularly poor form, he is 0-3 with a .848 SV% and 4.35 GAA over his past four outings.
If we are going to back a member of the Sabres to find the back of the net, then Thompson is as good as any. He is the best pure shooter on this team, especially with Jeff Skinner potentially missing this game due to an upper body injury.
Thompson enters this matchup in fine form, scoring five goals over his past eight games. He has particularly torched Ottawa over the past two seasons, scoring five times over the past five meetings.
He is the primary triggerman on the first power play unit as well, so he should have numerous opportunities to extend this success on Thursday evening.
Pick: Tage Thompson Anytime Goascorer (+140 at FanDuel)
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Canucks vs. Penguins
By Greg Liodice
As the season continues to progress, the Vancouver Canucks continue to amaze me. Given how this team was in turmoil a season ago, they’ve managed to rise from the ashes.
The Canucks take on the Pittsburgh Penguins in the final game of their Eastern Conference road trip, and they swept the New York/New Jersey teams. Now, standing in their way is the Penguins, who are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. The start of 2024, they’ve played .500 hockey, though, so one has to wonder if the Pens are coming back down to Earth.
Vancouver keeps separating itself from the pack in the Pacific Division – and it’s not by accident. They’re not the best (nor the worst) team at 5-on-5 play. That makes the Canucks special is their power play and goaltending.
The Canucks score at a 23% clip with the man advantage, and Thatcher Demko is playing the best hockey of his career with a .916 SV% and a 13.6 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
Not only that, but they have four players averaging over a point per game. It’s not like those four hog all the points; there’s a lot of depth there. Beyond the core four of Elias Pettersson, JT Miller, Quinn Hughes and Brock Boeser, four other players have registered 20+ points.
We all know the weapons Pittsburgh has. Sidney Crosby hasn’t slowed down, but Jake Guentzel leads the team in scoring. Erik Karlsson has also proved to be a huge addition to the squad, with 28 points and a +11 rating.
However, I’m seeing a ton of value in betting the Canucks here. On Tuesday, they were the underdogs against the Islanders after playing a game the night before, and they still put on a clinic. Why should tonight be different? I’m backing Vancouver at plus-money here.
Pick: Canucks ML (+110 at FanDuel)
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Maple Leafs vs. Islanders
Since John Tavares chose to leave Long Island for Toronto, home games between the Islanders and Leafs have always had a ton of extra juice.
The Islanders will surely be at their most urgent here as they look to feed off the home crowd to best a bitter rival for the second time this season.
The motivation angle is not enough for me to see a reason why Toronto is not a bigger favorite here.
The Islanders' defensive play has been downright horrible this season, and that has not changed of late. They own a 3.58 xGA/60 over the last month, which is comparable to their season long sample. The "eye test" agrees; they continue to feature a number of ugly defensive sequences game after game.
Chances are their structural issues won't go by the wayside just because the team has some extra juice tonight. We are 40 games into the season, the Isles own a -12 goal differential, and even strong play from Ilya Sorokin hasn't covered the defensive flaws to this point.
The Leafs, meanwhile, have generated the fourth-most xGF/60 this season, and they enter in a strong run of play with four straight wins. Although it has come inside a soft schedule, their defensive play has been far better recently, which has allowed Martin Jones to continue thriving statistically.
There is no disputing that Sorokin is still a far better netminder than Jones and that the Isles faithful will make this a tough atmosphere. That doesn't change enough for me to price the Isles this closely to any top-10 team right now.
Pick: Leafs ML (-130 at DraftKings)
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Blackhawks vs. Jets
By Ryan Dadoun
The average game has featured roughly 6.3 goals this year, but this one seems like a good candidate to finish meaningfully below that mark.
The Blackhawks have averaged just 2.32 goals per game in 2023-24 and are looking even worse after Connor Bedard (jaw) joined Andreas Athanasiou (groin), Anthony Beauvillier (wrist), Nick Foligno (finger), Taylor Hall (ACL), Tyler Johnson (foot) and offensive defenseman Seth Jones (shoulder) on injured reserve.
It’s not an exaggeration to say that the Blackhawks are projected to have more scoring threats on IR than in the lineup on Thursday night.
At the other end of the ice, Connor Hellebuyck is the projected starter for Winnipeg. He’s arguably a top Vezina Trophy contender with a 21-6-3 record, 2.20 GAA and .923 save percentage in 30 contests this year, so Chicago is unlikely to cause him much trouble in its current state.
Winnipeg does have a strong offense, but the Jets are missing one of their top scorers in Kyle Connor (knee), so their situation isn’t ideal either. There’s also a chance scoring leader Mark Scheifele will get a game off the puck struck his ear late in Tuesday’s contest, which necessitated stitches.
These two squads have also played each other hard, combining for just seven goals over their previous two matchups this season (Winnipeg won 3-1 on Dec. 2 while the Blackhawks earned a 2-1 overtime victory Dec. 27 – the latter of which involved Bedard scoring both Chicago goals).
The Jets are a good bet to win this game, but it probably won’t be an offensive night.
Pick: Blackhawks-Jets Under 5.5 (+105 at Betway)
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