The Boston Bruins won Game 6 of the 2019 Stanley Cup Final against the St. Louis Blues, setting up a winner-take-all Game 7 on Wednesday night.
Boston is a -170 favorite, meaning the betting market expects the Bruins to win Game 7 on home ice.
But what does betting history say about these matchups? Your guess is as good as anyone’s. Data from Bet Labs shows that it is hard to predict Game 7 winners.
Is Home-Ice Advantage Real?
If you have to play a Game 7, you want it at home. With familiar surroundings and a raucous crowd, home ice should be an advantage in the postseason.
At least that's the commonly held belief. But sleeping in your own bed the night before a do-or-die playoff game isn’t all that it’s cracked up to be.
Since 2005, the home team is 664-546 (54.9%) in all postseason games. That is the exact same win rate as the regular season during that time: 9,192-7,541 (54.9%). Home ice doesn’t create an extra edge in the playoffs and that is evident in Game 7s.
In Game 7s, the home team has gone 31-28 straight up (SU) since 2005. But what about other factors, like momentum and teams favored in these matchups?
Can Momentum Carry Over?
You might think the team that forced Game 7 has a slight edge. But the data suggests momentum from Game 6 does not carry over to the next game. Teams that won the previous game are 30-29 in Game 7's since 2005.
Do The Favorites Win?
Oddsmakers are smart. After all, they manage to take the public’s money consistently. If anyone knows who will win it’s the bookmakers. Betting favorites in Game 7 are 34-25 since 2005.
Favorites have a winning record, but that’s not much different than teams with home ice.
The Bruins have home ice and are favored, but that doesn’t mean victory will be theirs, as history has shown Game 7s are hard to predict.
