Betting odds: Florida Panthers at New York Rangers
- Panthers moneyline: -120
- Rangers moneyline: +100
- Over/Under: 6
- Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
>> All odds as of 1 a.m. ET on Tuesday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets
Neither the Panthers nor the Rangers will play their starting goalie on Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden. Michael Hutchinson, Florida's third-string goalie, will give James Reimer a night off, while Alexandar Georgiev will be in the blue paint for the Rangers.
Hutchinson has certainly had his chances to claim a spot as an NHL backup but he's been below average for the most part. His AHL numbers are pretty strong, but in his last 34 NHL games, he's posted a .911 5v5 save percentage and -7.42 GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average).
Georgiev has 11 NHL games under his belt, and the early returns are about what you'd expect from a 22-year-old trying to establish himself as an NHLer. The Bulgarian owns a .908 SV% and -1.26 GSAA in his short NHL career.
Neither one of these goalies will instill confidence, but a deeper dive reveals an edge worth playing.
Florida is off to a slow start (1-2-3, 5 points) but has a positive 5v5 goal differential and controls 51.7% of the shot share at even strength. The Panthers do a good job of limiting shot attempts (45.1 allowed per 60 minutes at 5v5) and High-Danger Scoring Chances (9.53 per 60 minutes at 5v5).
The Rangers' biggest strength is creating scoring opportunities. They rank near the top of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes at 5v5 (xGF/60) and High-Danger Scoring Chances for per 60 (HDSC/60).
However, the Blueshirts are porous on defense. They allow an average of 57 shot attempts, 13.57 High-Danger Scoring Chances (HDSC) and 2.62 expected goals (xGA) per 60 minutes (score + venue adjusted). This makes sense because the Rangers have one of the worst defenses in the league.
The Panthers have one of the most potent offenses in the league, so Georgiev is going to need to be sharp. It's pretty easy to see him getting shelled by the Cats.
At the current odds Florida has an implied probability of 54.6%, and that underestimates the Panthers a little bit. They still have a little value around the market, and I'd play them up to -127 (56%).
The Bet: Florida Panthers -120
Betting odds: Arizona Coyotes at Columbus Blue Jackets
- Coyotes moneyline: +145
- Blue Jackets moneyline: -165
- Over/Under: 5.5
- Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
(Editor's note: After being confirmed as the starter this morning, Antti Raanta will not start for Arizona. Darcy Kuemper will fill in.)
The Arizona Coyotes continue to be underrated by the betting market.
Despite Arizona's ugly 2-5 start, the Coyotes' underlying stats suggest they are better than their record shows.
Arizona currently sits fifth in the NHL with a 54.9 Corsi For % and ranks 11th with an average of 2.41 xGF/60 and 10th with an average of 2.08 xGA/60.
The problem for the 'Yotes has been their inability to score. They have the league's worst 5v5 shooting percentage at 2.96% and have tallied just six goals at even strength this season.
The Blue Jackets' underlying numbers are pretty similar to the Coyotes' figures. Columbus is a positive (51%) Corsi team and averages 2.45 xGF/60 and 2.13 xGA/60. The Blue Jackets also have a low PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage, where 100 is the league average) thanks to some shaky goaltending from the usually superb Sergei Bobrovsky.
Bobrovsky came into the season as a consensus top-three goaltender but is off to a slow start with an .881 SV% at 5v5. Compare that to his .921 expected SV%, and you can see that 'Bob' has been an issue in the early going.
Both of these teams are due for regression in different ways. Arizona should start finding the net with more consistency, while Columbus should get better goaltending.
The Bet: Arizona Coyotes +145
Betting odds: Anaheim Ducks at Chicago Blackhawks
- Ducks moneyline: +125
- Blackhawks moneyline: -140
- Over/Under: 5.5 (-125/+105)
- Puck drop: 8:30 p.m. ET
A look below the surface shows why the Ducks are as high as +129 (Pinnacle) to beat the Blackhawks on Tuesday night.
Anaheim may be 5-3-1 through nine games but its peripheral numbers leave a lot to be desired. The Ducks have the worst xG ratio in the league (36.9%), the third-worst Corsi numbers (41.9%) and rank in the bottom five in both HDSC For and Against per 60 minutes. The Ducks are regularly getting outplayed and outchanced, but they have the NHL's best goalie in John Gibson.
Gibson has kept the Ducks afloat in the early going and his 10.59 GSAA and +5.38 delta SV% (the difference between his xSV% and SV% at 5v5) through seven games are both astounding numbers. Simply put, the 25-year-old netminder has been worth nearly 11 goals for the Ducks this season.
Things should start to get better in front of Gibson, though, as Ryan Getzlaf is back in the lineup and he is Anaheim's key component up front.
During the first two months of last season — where Getzlaf sat out all but seven games — Anaheim's Corsi sat at 45.5%. After that, the Ducks improved to 51.3%.
The Ducks are still missing Ondrej Kase and Corey Perry up front, but with Getzlaf in the mix and their strong defense, things should start to improve.
Chicago is off to a respectable 4-2-2 start and while the Blackhawks' Corsi sits above 50%, its xG numbers are not all that strong. Chicago is allowing a league-worst 3.16 xGA/60 and its 16.25 HDSC/60 is second-to-last. The Ducks may not be great at generating scoring chances, but this matchup can very well suit them.
Corey Crawford is back in goal for the Blackhawks and he's one of the league's best goaltenders when he's healthy, but this is just his third game since last December so it's hard to expect him to be in top form already.
With Gibson in net, the Ducks have a puncher's chance to pull off the upset on the road. Anaheim is playable at +120 or better. This is a good game to remind yourself to shop around the market to get the best number as the prices vary from book to book.
The Bet: Anaheim Ducks +125
