The NHL playoff race is reaching a fever pitch and Tuesday night features a bushel of games with very high stakes. The biggest game of the lot is Columbus (72 points, 22 games remaining) at Philadelphia (71 points, 23 games remaining), so we'll start there.
Blue Jackets at Flyers Odds
Blue Jackets odds: +133
Flyers odds: -157
Over/Under: 5.5
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers odds via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
The market moved against me, but I played the Columbus Blue Jackets at +125 and obviously still see value on them at +135.
Columbus has established itself as one of the great defensive teams in the NHL, allowing just 2.05 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this season and just 1.7 xGA/60 in its last 10 games.
Philadelphia's defense grades out as just average on the season, but the Flyers have been much better over their last 10 games, allowing just 1.84 xGA/60 in that span.
The Flyers have been playing great hockey with a 58.2% expected goals rate in their last 10 games, but Columbus is right there with them at 58.1%. Columbus' specialty is turning games into coin flips, so I often find value on the Jackets at higher prices and tonight is no different.
Philadelphia has more talent and Columbus is dealing with a menu of injuries, but I think the Jackets have better than a 43% chance to take the two points tonight, which is why I played them at +125.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Maple Leafs at Penguins
Maple Leafs odds: +125
Penguins odds: -148
Over/Under: 6.5
Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSN
After opening at -135 at most shops, Pittsburgh has taken some money and shortened to -140 or higher around the market.
On the surface, it's easy to see why the market is high on the Pens and low on the Leafs. Pittsburgh is 7-2-1 in its last 10 games while Toronto has hit the skids a little bit and is dealing with injuries up and down its lineup.
That being said, Pittsburgh has a 43% expected goals rate at 5-on-5 over its last eight games, while Toronto is doing just fine at 52.2% in that same span. I'm not exactly thrilled with the idea of betting against the Penguins in this matchup — they are one of the best defensive teams in the NHL and can handle Toronto's run-and-gun offense — but if the Leafs get to +130 I'll hop on.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Around the League
I don't think the market has correctly adjusted for how poor the Carolina Hurricanes (+105) have been since they lost No. 1 defenseman Dougie Hamilton.
The Canes have been one of the best 5-on-5 teams for a long time, but they are starting to dip below average and their defense has really struggled lately, allowing an average 2.85 expected goals against per 60 minutes in their last 18 games.
The Nashville Predators (-125) haven't been world-beaters, but with home-ice advantage I think they are worth a shot against the Hurricanes at -120 or better.
