Good morning!
Yesterday wasn't too busy, as there were two edges vs. openers according to my projections, and one of them (Blues-Ducks over) actually got better as the day went on, and won easily.
That's always fun. Despite my bemoaning the model identifying that play in yesterday's column, it turns out it's really not that bad to have a Ducks over. Who knew? Quack.
A Reminder
If you’re new here, I built a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.
To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.
Thursday's Slate
Thursday is much busier than yesterday, and sees the return of a lot of the "popular" first period teams. Chicago is playing. So is Tampa. And Dallas. And Columbus.
The really scary thing is that in almost all of the games there is value on the side that the trend bettors are going to be hammering as well. This most likely means that these edges will dissipate, possibly fast, as money floods in on those sides.
Tampa's over is a prime example. These haven't lasted very long when available. Same with Dallas unders, in almost every case.
The good news is, as we've established many times, this isn't the most efficient market, so by shopping around you can probably still find a price to your liking on most of them.
Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Projections
Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.
