Preseason NHL futures previews are among my favorite pieces each hockey season, and this year's second offering is no different with an exciting trio of plays.
NHL Opening Night is just days away, so now is the time to pounce on these NHL bets.
Before we jump into the best currently available selections, I'll link to this season's first futures piece – and note I still feel strongly about those plays.
Now, let's jump into some last-minute additions before the NHL regular season kicks off on Tuesday night.
Follow all of Nicholas Martin's picks throughout the NHL season in the Action App at @NicholaskMartin, and catch him on The Line Change podcast. You can also hit him up on X (@NickM_Hockey) with any questions throughout the hockey season.
Nicholas Martin's 2023-24 NHL Futures
Selke Award Winner: Nico Hischier (+500)
This is the first year that regulated sportsbooks have offered betting markets on this award. It is possible that oddsmakers are overvaluing the odds that we see a relatively out-of-the-blue winner, which has me projecting value with a couple of the most logical winners.
A price of +500 implies that Nico Hischier is going to win this award 16.7% of the time. If we polled Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA) members on whom they believed will win the 2023-24 award, though, we might see roughly 50% predict Hischier.
That thought is relevant here. Building a reputation as an elite defensive forward in the NHL takes time. It is often said that this is a reputation-based award. Hischier, the Devils captain, earned a second-place finish in last season's race and garnered 41% of the total vote points. He skates on an exciting young roster that will garner a ton of media attention as a true Cup contender this season.
The fact that voters are entering the year with him all over the radar is important. If his level remains the same, it will not go unnoticed playing on a high-profile Devils team.
Nico Hischier highlights never get old… pic.twitter.com/WoJsys5yqi
— Devils on MSG (@DevilsMSGN) July 25, 2023
Hischier actually going out there and performing is still the most critical part of all. That's a good thing; he should display more of the elite two-way play that media members will be expecting this season.
At age 24, Hischier is skating in his true prime, and he has a strong reputation of being fully committed to his craft. That commitment has translated into consistent development at the NHL level each season and makes me believe a letdown is unlikely.
Hischier guards the dangerous areas of the ice exceptionally well, both at even strength and on the penalty kill. He put up a career-high 80 points in the 2022-23 season, and he is a bonafide star whether you want to talk raw production, eye test or underlying numbers.
Strong offensive numbers are key in this race as well since the award has seemingly become a little closer to a hybrid of the best defensive forward who still produces at a high level opposed to simply the best defensive forward.
Needing Hischier to skate in 70-plus games is the main concern with this wager. He has had some issues staying in the lineup. Factoring in the percentage of the time we suffer losses in that fashion, +500 odds (at bet365) for Hischier to be the Selke Award winner is still an excellent price, and anything better than +375 – including the +470 at FanDuel as of this writing – is a bet for me.
The Pick: Selke Award Winner: Nico Hischier (+500 at bet365)
Ottawa Senators to Make Playoffs (+110) | Jack Adams Award Winner: D.J. Smith (+2500)
The Senators project as a hair better than 50% to sneak into the postseason and finally pay off their rebuild with actual results. Their roster composition dictates that the time to win is now, and there will be no excuses if the team finishes outside of the playoffs again in 2023-24.
Ottawa owned the league's 13th-highest GAA last season, but the team should improve on that front with a strong goaltending tandem playing behind a high-quality blue line. Anton Forsberg played only 28 games last year, but he owned a +8.1 goals saved above expected rating.
New Ottawa goaltender Joonas Korpisalo played to a +12.7 GSAx in 39 appearances with Columbus and Los Angeles. In GSAx/60, they ranked 11th and 12th respectively. If the Sens' defensive play is reasonable, they should be rewarded.
Their defensive core will give them every opportunity to control play at a high rate. Jakub Chyrchrun and Thomas Chabot make up a strong pair. Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub compile a high-upside second pairing. Erik Brannstrom and Travis Hamonic make up a solid third unit.
Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle are legitimate top-liners who headline what should be a deep offensive core. As long as all three of the respective issues regarding Josh Norris, Drake Batherson and Shane Pinto don't go south, Ottawa's forward group rates out well even in a crowded East.
Shane Pinto's contract dispute is the most pressing of those concerns and will require a creative solution at this point. Even still, Ridly Greig has had a tremendous preseason and could potentially eat minutes more effectively than expected.
Keep an eye on Josh Norris' injury situation as notably bad news on that front would reduce my conviction on this play considerably.
If coach D.J. Smith's side finally sneaks back into the playoffs, that would make an enticing case for Jack Adams Award voters. The potential is there for this team to not only get in the postseason but surpass 100+ points, which would really make an excellent case.
Lay the bigger wager with the Sens to get in at +110, but certainly take a smaller shot with Smith to be voted top head coach.
The Picks: Senators to Make Playoffs (+110 at bet365) | Jack Adams Award Winner: D.J. Smith (+2500 at FanDuel)
Jakub Vrana To Score 20 Goals (-102)
In terms of actual goals per/60, Jakub Vrana has consistently scored at an elite level throughout his career. Off-ice issues have often prevented him from carving out a key role despite that fact.
Vrana took advantage of a change of scenery after being dealt to St. Louis last March and potted 10 goals in 20 games – with no reports of any off-ice concerns.
Vrana's 1.04 xGF/60 ranked second to Jordan Kyrou out of all Blues skaters.
He has scored three goals in four preseason games and seems to be entering the year in a good place. Even if he often ends up being deployed on the third line and second power play, this bet will have a great chance of cashing.
Vrana having not scored 20 goals since the 2019-20 season likely helps keep this price in a good spot, but his situation has changed drastically for the better.
This number, which is -102 at FanDuel, is an insult to Vrana's true ability to fill the cage.
