Thanks to their knack for comebacks, the Carolina Hurricanes have long been known as the "Cardiac 'Canes." Never has the moniker been more fitting than now, which is why I’m jumping on the Carolina Hurricanes to win the Stanley Cup at +1200 odds.
With a first-half record of 28-15-5, Carolina heads into the NHL All-Star break just two points behind the Metropolitan Division-leading New York Rangers with a game in hand.
Thus, the Hurricanes’ 14-12-1 start to the 2023-2024 season, and the coinciding panic, have been rendered a distant memory.
Since a players-only meeting on Dec. 9 following a fourth straight loss in the finale of their Western Canada road trip, the Hurricanes are 14-3-4, which equates to the NHL’s third-best points percentage over that span. The underlying numbers concur that this run is no fluke.
As the league braces for a four-day hiatus, now is the perfect time to scour the NHL futures market.
You're not gonna find a better value play than Carolina, where bet365 is offering market-best +1200 odds.
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NHL Futures: Carolina to Win Stanley Cup
The Case for the 'Canes
A closer look at the Hurricanes' metrics reveals the recent turnaround has involved a reversal of their fortunes more than anything else.
Since the Dec. 9 wake-up call, Carolina ranks fourth in xGF%, seventh in xGF/60 and third in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. Before the players' conference, though, the team ranked third, third and fourth in those categories, respectively.
The success in the win column of late can be largely attributed to a slight bump in shooting percentage, save percentage and PDO.
This isn’t to say the Hurricanes' recent results have been driven by puck luck, but rather to highlight that they've played at an extremely high level all season, consistently driving play and out-chancing opponents.
They were due for some positive regression.
And the crowd went wiiiiiild 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/7HBV36GyTe
— Carolina Hurricanes (@Canes) January 28, 2024
The caveat with Carolina is that the impressive underlying data is nothing new. Since Rod Brind’Amour took over in 2018, the Hurricanes have been touted as "analytics darlings," regularly ranking atop the league in several key areas thanks in part to the volume-shooting style that their coach has instilled.
Just last year, for example, Carolina finished with the NHL's best xGF%, xGF/60 and xGA/60 at 5-on-5.
The narrative, though, has seemingly become that the Hurricanes' analytical success should be dismissed given the supposed lack of results. Perhaps the public is overlooking the fact that Carolina has made the playoffs in each of Brind’Amour’s five seasons behind the bench, a run that includes conference finals appearances in 2019 and 2023. Only once has Brind'Amour's squad failed to get past the first round.
It's worth noting: The Hurricanes' postseason undoing has typically stemmed from a lack of high-end offensive talent, special-teams struggles and shaky goaltending, two of which appear to have been resolved.
Offensively, Sebastian Aho has blossomed into an elite producer, scoring at nearly a 100-point pace this season. Andrei Svechnikov, who missed some time due to injury, is also scoring at the best clip of his career.
Seth Jarvis, Carolina's second-leading scorer, is enjoying a breakout year, already just two points shy of his career-high. Martin Necas and Teuvo Teravainen continue to be reliable contributors, too.
And special teams is arguably where Carolina has made its biggest strides. The perpetually superb penalty kill unsurprisingly ranks fourth in the NHL. The shocker is that the Hurricanes' typically middling power play has been the league's second-best unit this season, clicking at 28%.
The goaltending, though, is where the question marks lie. Carolina's .883 team save percentage is the third-worst mark in the NHL. Antti Raanta, the Hurricanes' primary starter to this point, owns a 3.04 GAA and .870 SV%. His -9.90 GSAx ranks 87th out of 91 goalies.
Carolina's excellent crop of defensemen and strong defensive-zone play can only do so much to cover up the goaltending warts. This is the area where we're banking on improvement going forward.
Hockey bettors: North Carolina sports betting could soon be fully online. Keep up with the latest developments!
2023-24 Stanley Cup Pick: Value on Hurricanes
At +1200, Carolina's Stanley Cup odds are longer than the Edmonton Oilers, Colorado Avalanche, Boston Bruins, Vancouver Canucks, Dallas Stars and New York Rangers. Its odds are the same as the Florida Panthers, Vegas Golden Knights and Winnipeg Jets.
Whether or not the Hurricanes can pull it off, their odds probably shouldn't be quite as long given the wide-open nature of the Eastern Conference.
Recent results suggest the Hurricanes are likely to ultimately leapfrog the Rangers and win the Metropolitan Division, setting themselves up for an advantageous matchup against the No. 1 wild-card team.
It's hard to predict who that will be and what will happen from there, but regardless, Carolina appears to have the makings of a Cup winner despite the goaltending uncertainties.
In terms of personnel, this might be the best version of the Hurricanes we've seen. Effectively, this year's group is just last year's conference finals squad plus key additions Michael Bunting and Dmitry Orlov. As long as they can stay healthy, they have an admirable balance of skill and grit, and size and speed.
In terms of the goaltending – the team's weak spot – we don't have to look far to see that all it takes is a hot goalie, not necessarily an elite one. Vegas' run with Adin Hill last year should give Carolina hope – because all it likely needs is two months of league-average play between the pipes.
The wild card in that area is Frederik Andersen, Carolina's anticipated starting netminder, who just resumed activity following a blood-clotting concern that has sidelined him since his 4-1-0 start to the season.
Andersen was solid for Carolina in last year's playoffs.
Lastly, what makes the Hurricanes an enticing play is they are expected to accrue upward of $8 million in cap space ahead of the trade deadline. They should have enough room to go all-in with multiple major additions. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them poke around the trade market for a guy such as Juuse Saros while also trying to bolster their top-six.
So, get Carolina at +1200 while you still can. It's a matter of time until those odds get shorter throughout the second half of the NHL season.
