Oilers vs. Jets Odds
| Oilers Odds | -125 |
| Jets Odds | +105 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | NHL.tv |
| Odds as of Monday evening and via BetMGM. | |
Buzzer-beaters are all the rage in basketball, but the NHL has had its fair share of late-scoring drama this season. The Vancouver Canucks have been victims of a pair of last-second shots to end periods. The Wild had a dramatic goal at the bell then won in overtime earlier this season. But the best siren-slapper of the season came late on Sunday night as the Oilers won in Winnipeg in one of the best games of this young season.
The two teams meet again on Tuesday. What will they do for an encore?
Edmonton Oilers
Even with the notch in the win column, having a high-flying game with 30 High-Danger scoring chances (HDCs) isn’t what the Oilers were likely hoping for after playing a more tight-checking style against the equally talented Toronto Maple Leafs. It wasn’t the type of win that makes you feel great about the Oilers going forward.
The Oilers do move up to a rating of 7% above average, according to my “Let’s Do That Hockey” model, over on THE WINDOW: Sports Betting Podcast. Seventeen HDCs in a game will do that. As we look ahead to the rematch on Tuesday, we have to determine if that’s replicable for the Oilers, and if it isn’t, if they will tighten back up on the defensive end.
Winnipeg Jets
For the Jets, they were the more impressive team on Sunday, even if their performance left them with slightly lower than 40% win probability if you use the 5-on-5 metrics in hindsight. On the second half of a back-to-back, the Jets were able to muster tying and go-ahead goals in the third period before Edmonton made their own comeback.
With a chance to catch their breath on Monday, I expect the Jets to play better defensively, and better than the slightly below average 5-on-5 rating rating, especially with three days off after the game. However, the market appears to have made this correction as well.
Oilers-Jets Pick
The one thing that I think will be the key to profitable betting this season, is the back-end question. The sooner we can figure out how to account for the second game, and how the teams change from one game to the next, the better. Through 27 games where the back-to-back has a day-off in between, the team that lost the first game increases their average win probability by between 8-9%.
If I’m making that addition to the evaluation, my true moneyline moves from a pure PK to the Jets as a -120 favorite. With the Jets available at even-money, that puts them in range for a bet.
The Pick: Jets (-105 or better)
