Game 2: Calgary Flames vs. Dallas Stars Odds
| Flames Odds | -108 [BET NOW] |
| Stars Odds | -108 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 5 (-137/+112) [BET NOW] |
| Time | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
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The Dallas Stars were not very good in Game 1 against the Calgary Flames.
Even though the two teams attempted the same number of shots, the Flames controlled play from start to finish. Calgary finished with a 1.71 to 0.91 expected goals advantage at 5-on-5 and created seven of the 10 high-danger chances in the game.
It was a low-event game, the type of style that Dallas wants to play, but it was an ugly performance by the Stars and an impressive one by the Flames. The 3-2 scoreline probably flattered Dallas a bit.
It's not a lot of fun to go right back to a team after a deflating loss, but that's often where the value lives. I think that's the case for Thursday's nightcap.
Even though Dallas hasn't put things together during the tournament it was a defensive force during the regular season. Only one team allowed fewer goals per hour at 5-on-5 and the Stars were the fifth-best team in terms of expected goals against per hour at even strength.
Add in that Dallas has the league's best goaltending partnership and you've got yourself a really tough team to beat.
| Dallas Stars 5-on-5 Stats | Result | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals For Per 60 Minutes | 1.96 | 30th |
| Goals Against Per 60 Minutes | 1.99 | 2nd |
| Expected Goals For Per 60 Minutes | 2.42 | 13th |
| Expected Goals Against Per 60 Minutes | 2.17 | T5 |
| Shot Attempts For Per 60 Minutes | 54.2 | 21st |
| Shot Attempts Allowed Per 60 Minutes | 56.07 | 17th |
| High-Danger Chances For Per 60 Minutes | 11.68 | 5th |
| High-Danger Chances Against Per 60 Minutes | 10.13 | 12th |
Even though Calgary has an edge in scoring talent over Dallas, I still think the Stars are the better overall team. The edge in defense and in goaltending makes up for its shortcomings on offense, especially against the Flames.
Calgary's defense struggled to contain teams during the regular season, ranking 20th in goals against and 17th in expected goals against, so I'm confident Dallas will get enough opportunities to allow its defense do what it does best and close out a game.
I thought the betting market was too low on Dallas for Game 1. The Stars stumbled in the seeding round and the Flames looked good in a 3-1 series win over the Jets, so it was no wonder that bettors kept the price down on the Stars.
That same thing is happening again in Game 2. After closing at -113 at DraftKings in the series opener, the Stars are at -108 for Game 2 (as of 12:30 a.m. ET) and I think that's a great number, considering that Dallas is the better team.
I see value on the Stars at -120 or cheaper for Game 2.
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