Game 4: Avalanche vs. Coyotes Odds
| Avalanche Odds | -195 [BET NOW] |
| Coyotes Odds | +165 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 5 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
Odds via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
It wasn't a secret that the Arizona Coyotes were going to need Darcy Kuemper to steal a game or two if they wanted to hang with the Colorado Avalanche in this series. The Saskatchewanian netminder was up to the task in Game 3, stopping 49 of 51 shots to pull his Coyotes within a game of the Avalanche in their best-of-7 showdown.
Kuemper's heroics were a big part of Arizona's upset on Saturday but the Yotes actually did a decent job of executing their gameplan. Colorado out-attempted Arizona 73 to 30, but the expected goals battle showed that the Coyotes did a great job of keeping the Avs out of harm's way.
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According to MoneyPuck's xG model, Colorado edged Arizona, 2.6 to 2.33 at 5-on-5 and 2.76 to 2.56 in all situations on Saturday. The Avs had a lot more of the puck, but when the Coyotes had it, they were dangerous.
The Avalanche are a good bet to continue bullying the Coyotes at 5-on-5, but Arizona won't be too bothered about that. The Desert Dogs can't win by trading chances with the Avs so they are fine sitting back and making sure they make life as easy as possible on their star goaltender.
| 5-on-5 Stat | Arizona Coyotes | Colorado Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 6 |
| Expected Goals | 4.15 | 5.61 |
| Shot Attempts | 113 | 182 |
| High-Danger Scoring Chances | 22 | 25 |
Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.
Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.
xG numbers cited from Evolving Hockey.
After getting shelled in Game 1 as +155 underdogs, the Coyotes closed at +170 in Game 2 and then +150 for Game 3. They are back up to +165 at DraftKings for Game 4 as of late Sunday night and I'd be surprised if the Yotes garner much support in the market ahead of the 5:30 p.m. ET puck drop.
| Colorado Avalanche | Arizona Coyotes | |
|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | -182 | +155 |
| Game 2 | -200 | +170 |
| Game 3 | -177 | +150 |
| Game 4 | -195 | +165 |
Odds via DraftKings
If you're just looking for action on this game I'd say it's Arizona or nothing at the current prices. At +165 the Coyotes have an implied win probability of 36.3%, which is probably a shade low.
I'm going to wait to see if this price creeps closer to +175 before getting involved, but I can't see any other way of getting involved in this game other than betting on the dog. The Coyotes have been able to keep these games close deep into the third period thanks to Kuemper and a good defensive system. That makes laying big juice on the Avs a pretty risky proposition.
