With some excellent Game 4s on tap Sunday, let's dive in to my favorite plays for these games.
David Perron Over 2.5 Shots On Goal -140 (Wild vs Blues) (Play to -150):
With the Blues missing several key defenders, it's hard for me to see this game not opening up to an extent and offering yet another high-scoring affair.
As someone who liked the Blues' chances entering this series, I would lay off the Blues in this spot, but I see value backing David Perron to generate three Shots On Goal.
Perron has had 3+ Shots On Goal in all three contests this series, averaging five Shots On Goal and 7.66 attempts per game.
Toronto Maple Leafs +100 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (Play to -105):
This is a take I'll make knowing full well I am opening myself up to a ton of hate given a miss, but I can't resist a plus-number when Toronto has been the sharper club in the series and the better club in the regular season.
Nobody wants to fade the champs and Vasilevskiy when all they have ever done is respond after playoff losses. But the fact is that in all those series leading up to this one, Tampa was clearly the better side.
So that 15-0 record after playoff losses the last two seasons has been largely in spots where the Lightning were the clear better side and therefore were likely to win the next game. However, they have not been better than the Maple Leafs so far in this series.
Brayden Point Over 2.5 Shots On Goal -105 (Maple Leafs vs Lightning) (Play to -115):
If the Lightning do find a crucial victory in Game 4, Brayden Point will need a strong performance. He has began to show the excellent form we are used to seeing in the postseason.
Point has been all over it the last two contests, with 10 total shots and 12 attempts, which isn't surprising with how involved he has appeared. Getting close to even money is an excellent proposition to me, especially in a spot where Tampa should lean heavily on its top stars.
Evander Kane Over 3.5 Shots On Goals +105 (Oilers vs Kings) (Play to -105):
We hit on this in Game 2 with Kane's massive performance, and we will go back to the well here. Kane netted a hat-trick with nine Shots On Goal on 14 attempts in Game 2 and has now gone over 3.5 in seven of his last nine games, while averaging 5.55 Shots On Goal during that span.
Kane continues to be extremely involved and has been making a difference all over the ice while playing some very inspired hockey. As long as he keeps playing alongside Connor McDavid and working like he is, he will continue to crush this number, and backing it at plus-money holds value yet again.
