NHL betting analyst Nicholas Martin breaks down his four favorite plays from Tuesday’s slate of Game 4 playoff games across the landscape.
Antti Raanta Under 2.5 Goals Against -115 (Play to -120)
Hurricanes vs Rangers — 7 p.m. ET
Carolina has settled into its more traditional form defensively after a surprisingly sloppy effort in Game 1 of this series, and I believe we will see that form continue in a massive Game 4 at Madison Square Garden Tuesday.
The Hurricanes has held the Rangers to just 2.66 xGF/60 over the last two outings, but as we have seen all season from the Hurricanes, their true defensive play is likely even a decent margin sharper than expected goal rates indicate.
Coach Rod Brind'Amour group does a tremendous job of preventing the types of breakdowns that go under quantified in expected goals data, which was a big part of each of Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta allowing far fewer goals than expected in the regular season.
An important note towards this prop is that empty net goals do not count, and in turn this bet has cashed in every game to start the series. I expect another very close and hard-fought game Tuesday at MSG, and this looks like a good way to get a little more value than betting on the under 5.5 at -140 to me.
Johnny Gaudreau Over 3.5 Shots On Goal +100 (Play to -110)
Flames vs. Oilers — 9:30 p.m. ET
Gaudreau has hit this number in 8-of-11 playoff games so far, including five straight games entering tonight's massive game four tilt.
Edmonton was clearly the better side in Games 2 and 3, but that did not stop Calgary's top unit from generating a strong amount of chances. The Oilers have allowed 38.33 shots against per game throughout 10 playoff games so far, and remain a good target for shots on goal props.
Gaudreau has averaged seven attempts on goal per game so far in this series with an average of five shots reaching the net, and with how the Flames top unit is capable of driving play, it seems unlikely to me those averages do not hold.
Whether it will ultimately be enough to win a game against McDavid and this Oilers offence remains to be seen, but I expect Gaudreau and the Flames stars to find a way to make more of a difference tonight and drive play at a strong rate 5-on-5.
Elias Lindholm Powerplay Point +225 (Play to +215)
Flames vs. Oliers — 9:30 p.m. ET
We have continued to see a wealth of man advantages being handed out in the battle of Alberta, and it does not seem likely that will change anytime soon.
My expectation is that the Flames will manage an altogether better effort than we saw in Game 2, and Calgary should draw more penalties with a heightened run of play. I believe Calgary will score a powerplay goal tonight, and see Lindholm as a good target for a point at this price.
Calgary's powerplay has generated a ton of chances in this series, with a 10.11 expected goals for per/60 rate so far. Lindholm is always a key focal point of the Flames man advantage, and is excellent at finding soft spots in coverage on the powerplay.
