NHL betting analyst Nicholas Martin breaks down his four favorite plays from tonight's battle between the Blues and Avalanche at 8 p.m. ET, as St. Louis looks to avoid elimination.
Ville Husso Over 31.5 Saves -110 (Play to -120):
The Avalanche have looked scary good in their opening 10 playoff games as they have generated a ton of looks on goal, with an average of 40.55 shots per 60 minutes so far.
In this series in particular, Colorado has generated 36.22 shots per game, and I don't see them playing below that average with the opportunity to close the Blues out at home Wednesday.
This ultra talented Avalanche group can sense the conference finals, and even though the Blues will bring their most urgent effort, it's still hard for me to see them owning the puck enough to keep this deep Avalanche roster from managing a myriad of attempts on goal.
Expect the Avalanche to play to their shot per game average of 36.22 as we will have an excellent chance of cashing this prop with Ville Husso seeing a high volume of shots.
Colton Parayko Over 2.5 Shots Blocked +125 (Play to +115):
Colton Parayko figures to be highly involved yet again tonight, and we can say with a good degree of certainty he will skate close to his playoff average of 24 minutes on ice tonight.
Parayko has blocked an average of 2.87 shots per game in 10 playoff games so far and has cashed this line in six of those 10 games. While he has been on the ice during the playoffs, Blues opponents have generated a -46 Shot Attempt Rate, which is a big reason for that abnormally high output of shot blocks.
Parayko's usage plays another role, as he features heavily on the Blues penalty kill again and will see a lot of defensive zone starts. This gives us plenty of opportunities to find the blocks needed to cash this prop as Colorado will likely create a lot of shot attempts. Parayko will do everything he can to prevent those from reaching the goal in this do-or-die spot.
Arturri Lehkonen Over 0.5 Points -105 (Play to -115):
Arturri Lehkonen has been excellent for the Avalanche since his addition at the deadline and has been strong again this postseason after a great run with Montreal in 2021.
Lehkonen was elevated to the first line with Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog for Game 4, and that unit was very effective, generating a 66.6 xGF% with 18 Shots on Goal.
I was surprised to see Lehkonen has produced just four goals and zero assists in the first eight games of this postseason, but that's surely a big part of us getting a favorable number here.
Playing with MacKinnon and Landeskog, I think it's surely a better than 50% proposition Lehkonen produces a single point in this game, and I feel that we have some value to buy low on a significantly underrated player here.
Ryan O'Reilly Over 0.5 Points -135 (Play to -145):
Lastly, I'll give a little love to Blues Captain Ryan O'Reilly, who has been heavily involved in this series and has managed an excellent playoff run altogether.
O'Reilly has managed 12 points in 10 contests so far in the postseason and has put a single point up in eight of those 10 games. He skated 25:33 of time on ice in Game 4, and we should see Coach Craig Berube rely heavily upon O’Reilly again tonight.
Playing O’Reilly to score anytime at +220 or to go over 2.5 shots both are very reasonable as well, but I feel most confident backing O'Reilly to find the score sheet in some fashion at this number.
