Avalanche vs Jets Prediction
| Avalanche Odds | -115 |
| Jets Odds | -105 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -120o / +100u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Avalanche vs Jets on Tuesday, April 30 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
After an ugly 7-6 loss in the series opener, the Avalanche have rattled off three straight wins by three or more goals and can put the Jets season to bed on Tuesday.
Where does the betting value lie here? Let's dive into the NHL odds and make a prediction for Avalanche vs. Jets Game 5 on Tuesday, April 30.
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche will look for more of what they've shown in tonight's matchup, as their speed through the neutral zone continues to give the Jets fits.
Their ability to gain the offensive zone with control has led to plenty of offensive zone possession time, and it seems like that strength will be suppressed at this point.
Because the Jets dominated the Avs, 7-0, in Colorado on April 13, Winnipeg became a trendy pick in this series. However, the Avalanche are actually a team that provides a nightmare matchup for the Jets, making this another reminder that regular-season matchups are not a consistent indicator of how a playoff series will go.
Even without Jonathan Drouin, the Avalanche's top-six has put up tremendous results in this series. Casey Mittelstadt and Artturi Lehkonen have paired up to drive an excellent second unit, while Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Valeri Nichushkin have formed a top line that looks unstoppable.
The Avalanche own a 61.2% expected goal share in the series, which is the best mark by any team in the playoffs.
In net, Alexandar Georgiev has bounced back after an ugly Game 1 performance, which is all the Avs will ask of him. He now holds a -1.7 GSAx and .885 save percentage in the series.
Winnipeg Jets
If Winnipeg loses Game 5, this series will have mirrored its first-round exit in 2023 identically.
The Jets were excellent in Game 1 last season, as they managed a 5-1 victory in Vegas. They failed to build on that strong performance, though, and ultimately lost in five games after four consecutive losses.
They had no adjustments for the Knights' ability to create off the rush last year, and that same story is playing out right now.
Plus, the Jets' deadline additions didn't solve any of their real issues.
Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli were effective this season, but they weren't skaters who controlled the play in second-line roles compared to other elite skaters. That's been a flaw for the Jets in this series, but it's far from the only one.
Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele have been consistently exposed in even-strength minutes versus other top lines for several seasons now. They didn't produce strong defensive results down the stretch against quality opponents, and that has been the case in this series as wells
The Jets' blue line has had a very tough time denying controlled zone entries in this series. At this point, that's due to a lack of ability rather than tactical flaws from Rick Bowness.
Brenden Dillon is going to miss this contest due to a gruesome hand laceration suffered in Game 4. It appears likely that Vladislav Namestnikov will also miss this matchup after taking a puck to the face in Game 4. Morgan Barron will also remain out.
The Jets' 4.16 xGA/60 is the highest mark of any team in Round 1 by a wide margin. The eye test would also tell you their defensive play has been awful, and even Connor Hellebuyck hasn't been able to hide his team's defensive struggles.
Hellebuyck has by no means been great, either. He has played to a -2.6 GSAx and .870 save percentage in the series. He has been confirmed as tonight's starter after getting pulled in Game 4.
Avalanche vs Jets
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Jets will bring their most urgent effort of the season and would love to find some inspiration in what will be a raucous crowd. We haven't seen the best of Hellebuyck in this series, which is another key argument that works in Winnipeg's favor.
For much of the regular season, the Jets limited true "Grade A" chances coming Hellebuyck's way — or at least gave him the opportunity to be set and square against shooters. That hasn't been the case in this series, and a big part of his disastrous play simply comes down to how much the Jets are getting exposed defensively.
The Avalanche have consistently taken advantage of the Jets' lack of foot speed in this series. Colorado is generating zone entries at will and continues to spend copious amounts of time attacking in the offensive zone. At this point, it's difficult to say which adjustments Bowness will make to help solve those issues.
Increased desperation won't be enough for Winnipeg in this game. At -120, there's enough value to make a half-unit bet on the Avalanche to close the series Tuesday.
