Blues vs Flames Odds
| Blues Odds | +150 |
| Flames Odds | -180 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +105 / -125 |
The St. Louis Blues continue their Western Canada road trip on Thursday with a stop in Wild Rose Country, where they take on the Calgary Flames.
St. Louis is off to a promising start this season, going 2-2-1 through the opening two weeks. However, most of that success is contraindicated in the team's underlying metrics.
Conversely, the Flames have greatly underachieved relative to their solid analytics play, setting them up as natural progression candidates over their coming sample.
Bettors have moved the opening line in favor of the Blues, but that is misplaced confidence in an underwhelming squad.
St. Louis Blues
The Blues are winning games with goaltending and defensive structure, which is the only possible way they could secure victories, considering their league-worst offensive metrics.
St. Louis sits last in the NHL in scoring and high-danger chances, averaging 18.0 and 7.4, respectively.
Those metrics tumble even further when adjusted for 60 minutes; two of the Blues' first five games went to a shootout. Consequently, those numbers fall to 17.4 and 7.2.
Bet on tonight's Blues vs Flames clash with our PointsBet promo code!
Although their defensive stats shed a redeeming light on the Blues, their relative metrics are abysmal. St. Louis is limiting opponents to an average of 24.2 scoring opportunities per game but has been out-chanced in every game this season.
The Blues' high-danger chance metrics paint a similar picture, with the team getting out-chanced in three of five games while giving up an average of 9.0.
Consequently, the ice has been tilted in their opponents' favor with the Blues skating uphill to win games. At 43.1%, St. Louis has the fourth-worst expected goals-for rating early this season, albeit with an actual rating of 50.0% that puts the Blues' in the league's top half.
That unsustainable balance will inevitably lead to more losses for the Blues.
Calgary Flames
Calgary is firmly planted on the opposite end of the progression/regression spectrum. The Flames have substantially underachieved relative to their analytics, implying that greener pastures await the Pacific Division contenders.
Calgary has the fifth-best expected goals-for rating in the Chell, contrasted by the fifth-worst actual goals-for rating. The only direction the Flames can go from here is up, and we expect them to burn brightly on their way there.
The Flames are dominating on both ends of the ice, dictating pace and controlling opportunities. They've out-chanced their opponents in scoring and high-danger opportunities in six straight games, posting respective cumulative 57.3% and 67.7% ratings over that stretch.
What's reflected in those benchmarks is the Flames attempting 34 more quality chances and 35 more scoring opportunities than their opponents.
Still, Calgary has recorded just nine goals at 5 on 5 across the sample, with a dismal 5.7% shooting percentage. Worse, the Flames have mustered more than one goal just twice across that span while getting out-scored at 5 on 5 in all but one of those contests.
On their own, those output metrics aren't conducive to more wins, but when reconciled with their top-end production metrics, the Flames are natural progression candidates over their coming games.
Blues vs. Flames
Betting Pick & Prediction
Calgary has posted league-best analytics to start the season, and its outcomes will start reflecting that.
The Flames get to pick on an overmatched Blues squad that continues to get outplayed on a nightly basis.
Although the initial line movement has moved away from the Flames, I still recommend taking a shot with the home side in this Western Conference showdown.
Flames up to -190 is worth the investment.
Pick: Flames (-180 at PointsBet)
