NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Blues vs Stars (Thursday, October 12)

Blues vs Stars Odds

Thursday, Oct 12

8:00pm ET

ESPN+

Blues Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1.5 -140	6.5 +106 / -130	+176

Stars Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1.5 +116	6.5 +106 / -130	-215

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

The opening week of the 2023-24 NHL season continues as the Dallas Stars host the St. Louis Blues Thursday night.

Low-scoring affairs have been a strong trend when these clubs square off over the past several years. In fact, there have been six or fewer total goals scored in 25 of the past 29 meetings.

Will that trend continue?

Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Blues vs. Stars betting pick and prediction.

St. Louis Blues

The St. Louis Blues are coming off a tough year in which they finished in the bottom three of the Central. To make matters worse, their 37-38-7 record was held up by some unsustainable finishing.

At 5-on-5 last year, St. Louis ranked second in finishing and 11th in goals for per 60 minutes (GF/60). However, the Blues were 28th in xGF/60. The only offseason additions they made were Kevin Hayes and Oskar Sundqvist, two guys whom opposing teams shouldn't be too concerned about in terms of goal production.

The defense remains the same, which is not good. With that said, the group is fully healthy at the blue line, which was something that was almost never the case last season.

Backing up this team in net is Jordan Binnington, who is also coming off a down year. It was the worst season of his career, and while I'm not sold that he's ever going to reach the level he was at during the team's 2019 Stanley Cup run, I do think he's better than a .894 SV% goaltender.

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Dallas Stars

There's so much to love about the Dallas Stars, as I highlighted in our early Stanley Cup preview. The forward group is deep and full of talent, but the best player on this team is defenseman Miro Heiskanen.

Dallas finished last season ranked fifth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5. Offensively, the Stars finished right at the league average in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.

Backing up this strong two-way team is Jake Oettinger, who could be a strong pick in the Vezina Trophy futures market. He finished fifth in that voting category at just 24 years old last year with a 37-11-11 record and a .919 SV%.

Oettinger also finished in the 82nd percentile in WAR at even strength. The sky is the limit for a guy who has improved year over year since joining the league in 2020-21, and having this strong of a team in front of him should give him the confidence needed to enter the "elite" category of NHL netminders.

Blues vs Stars

Betting Pick & Prediction

When there have been six or fewer total goals scored in 25 of the past 29 meetings between two divisional teams, you know the goaltending has consistently stepped up for each side. In 16 career starts against the Stars, Binnington boasts a .918 SV%.

Meanwhile, Oettinger has only faced the Blues three times over that stretch, but in those three outings, he is 2-1 with a stellar .944 SV%.

Divisional games are always played a little bit tighter as the two points on the line mean more. I think Dallas' strength in the two-way game, paired with Oettinger, is going to make scoring very difficult for St. Louis.

Even if the Stars take advantage of St. Louis' poor blue line, I don't think they'll torch Binnington for more than three or four goals.

Pick: Under 6.5

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