Bruins vs. Stars Odds
| Bruins Odds | +120 |
| Stars Odds | -144 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -112/ -108 |
In perhaps the most intriguing matchup on Monday's NHL slate, the Dallas Stars host the Boston Bruins in a battle between two first place teams. Boston has typically fared well in this matchup over the past few seasons, winning seven of the past nine meetings.
Will the Bruins take care of business once again, or can Dallas defend its home ice? Here's a look at the Bruins vs Stars odds, as well as my betting pick and prediction.
Boston Bruins
I made the Bruins a +100 underdog in my projections, given the road matchup against another likely-Cup-contending team. Even with the absence of defenseman Charlie McAvoy, +114 is just too wide in what should be a coin-flip matchup.
Boston will be fine without McAvoy, given they still have the likes of Hampus Lindholm and Brandon Carlo back there. At 5-on-5, the Bruins rank in the top half of the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
Backing up this strong blue line is goaltender Jeremy Swayman, who is expected to get the start on Monday. Swayman has been nearly perfect this season, posting a 5-0 record with a .954 SV% and 1.38 GAA through five starts.
Only one starting goaltender – Thatcher Demko – has saved more goals above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5 than Swayman. Meanwhile, he should get some solid goal support as the Bruins also rank fourth in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5.
Dallas Stars
Like I mentioned above, there is almost nothing to dislike about this Stars team. They were one of my preseason picks to win the Cup and have all the talent to get there.
With that said, going against Boston is a difficult task for any team, regardless of their talent. At 5-on-5, Dallas ranks lower than the Bruins in xGF/60, which will help off-set the absence of McAvoy.
Speaking of injuries, forward Matt Duchene is questionable for Monday's game after leaving against Vancouver with an upper-body ailment.
Another area where the Stars are strong is at goaltender with Jake Oettinger expected to start between the pipes. Again – while this is certainly not a knock on Oettinger and his status as one of the league's premier netminders – Swayman has just been better in every statistic/metric against the board.
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Bruins vs. Stars
Betting Pick & Prediction
Dating back to last season, Boston is 6-1 in its past seven games following a loss. I think we will see a bounce back from the reigning Presidents' Trophy winners against a team that they have statistically (and directly) been better than over the past few seasons.
Swayman has out-performed Oettinger, the blue line is still solid without McAvoy and the offense has been stronger than the Stars.'
This game should be a tremendous back-and-forth battle throughout the 60 minutes, but if you're giving me +117 on Boston in this spot, that is a position I am comfortable backing every time.
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