Canadiens vs. Coyotes Odds
| Canadiens Odds | +120 |
| Coyotes Odds | -144 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +104 / -128 |
Thursday's inter-conference battle between the Montreal Canadiens and Arizona Coyotes might not be the most glamorous matchup, but it does offer a valuable entry point for bettors.
The Coyotes come into tonight's affair on the second night of a back-to-back with travel while hosting a Habs side that last skated on Monday night.
Of course, that's not the only factor working against the undeserving favorites, as they remain one of the worst analytics teams in the league.
Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens deserve a lot of credit. Montreal came into the season with low-end expectations, opening the year with the longest Stanley Cup odds on the board.
Although they remain there at some shops, the Canadiens' early-season successes illustrate they won't be the pushovers everyone expects them to be. Particularly against an ineffective Coyotes squad on the second night of a back-to-back.
Martin St. Louis is the architect of the resurgent Habs, and he's finding ways to extract maximum value from the Canadiens' top lines.
Arguably, the team's best-performing trio upfront has been the Sean Monahan-led third line. He, Tanner Pearson, and Brendan Gallagher have combined for 16 points already with all three players posting an expected goals-for rating above 53.2%.
With values like that on the third line, it's setting the rest of the team up for success.
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More importantly, the Canadiens have the underlying metrics supporting sustained success.
The surprising 5-2-2 team has attempted 10 or more high-danger chances in four of their last six with an average of 10.7 per game and a 52.5% ratio.
Still, this increased production has not yet translated to more robust output, implying the Habs are progression candidates over their coming games.
Montreal has mustered a paltry eight goals at 5-on-5 across the six-game sample with a disappointing 6.4% shooting percentage. A date with the Coyotes might be precisely what they need to get the scoring bump they deserve.
Arizona Coyotes
A high-level view of the Coyotes might reveal a deceiving perspective of the Desert Dogs.
At first glance, they appear to be in good analytics standing; however, things aren't as rosy as they appear.
Heading into Thursday's showdown against the Habs, the Coyotes sit in the top 10 in the NHL with an expected goals-for rating of 54.2%. But upon closer inspection, the overall metrics are being propped up by one-offs against weak opponents.
The Yotes have been outplayed in five of their last eight but have posted game scores above 61.2% in the other three. Included in that are two performances that put the Coyotes above 70.0% over their previous two outings.
Coincidentally, those above-average performances came against the St. Louis Blues, Chicago Blackhawks and Anaheim Ducks, who rank 31st, 30th and 27th, respectively, in expected goals-for ratings.
The other misstep that Arizona made was starting primary netminder Karel Vejmelka on Wednesday night. That leaves Connor Ingram to play mop-up duty for a tired Coyotes team skating on consecutive nights and for the third time in four nights.
Granted, Ingram's off to a promising start this season, but he's also way ahead of career norms. His 91.4% save percentage is above his career benchmark of 90.6%.
Worse, Ingram continues to struggle with stopping high-danger opportunities, an area where the Habs thrive.
Canadiens vs. Coyotes
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Coyotes opened as favorites, but the line appropriately moved a bit in Montreal's favor.
It's worth backing a fresh Canadiens side that is due for offensive progression – against the tired hosts on Thursday night.
This line will likely move toward the Habs as we approach puck drop, but it's still worth playing up to the pick'em price range.
