Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Odds
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -104 | 6.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 6.5 -110o / -110u | -280 |
The storied rivalry between the Canadiens and Leafs will continue on Wednesday with another opening-night matchup.
Five straight openers between these sides have been single-goal games, three of which required overtime.
Montreal is in the midst of another rebuilding year, while Toronto is considered a true cup favorite. Therefore, it goes as no surprise to see Toronto priced as huge favorites at -300 in this matchup.
But is that price tag warranted? Let's dive into our Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs pick and prediction.
Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens are highly unlikely to be in the playoff mix this season, as they're playing out of a crowded Eastern Conference.
They hold a betting total of 71.5 points and are +1025 to make the postseason.
Those marks are slightly below what I'm projecting from this roster, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Canadiens be a profitable betting side early.
The outlook of the roster is similar to what we saw last season. However, they suffered through one of the worst injury situations of any team in the league.
Mike Matheson was quite strong when he was in the lineup, but he only played in 48 contests. He's the top piece of a young defensive core that does hold some upside. Kaiden Guhle, Johnathan Kovacevic and Jordan Harris could improve this season and raise Montreal's defensive floor slightly.
The Canadiens' offensive core is still a weakness. Montreal will benefit from Cole Caufield's return to the lineup, but it's still well below what contending Eastern Conference sides can offer.
Jake Allen and Samuel Montembeault will compile a respectable goaltending tandem that could benefit from slightly improved play defensively.
Allen has been tabbed as Montreal's starter for this matchup. He played to a -1.9 GSAx and .891 save % in 42 games last season and offered a notable dip in form statistically in the season's latter half.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto will again enter the season priced as one of the NHL's cup favorites (+900). The question becomes: how much better or worse will the Leafs be this season after a fairly busy offseason?
Toronto has an elite offensive core headlined by top talents in Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares. The acquisitions of Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi — as well as a full season from Matthew Knies to support those stars — should mean one of the most productive top-three units in hockey.
An inability to win in the playoffs — as well as being the league's most hated franchise — seemed to hide Toronto's strong defensive play last season. The Leafs' 2.68 goals-against-per-game mark ranked seventh in the league, and they owned an 11th-best xGA/60 per 60.
Toronto remaining as strong of a defensive side in 2023-24 is the main concern surrounding this lineup.
John Klingberg was treacherous defensively last season with Anaheim and is being counted on for a bounce back. He's currently skating on the second defensive pairing.
Mark Giordano's form fell apart badly in last season's back half, and he's also set to remain in the lineup.
Ilya Samsonov following up his breakout season in a goal is another key question for Toronto. He owned a +18.0 GSAx and .919 save % in 42 games played last season.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
The opening stretch of NHL contests can bring an added level of volatility, as teams get back up to full-game speed.
That statement could be particularly true for a group like Toronto, which is entering this season with significant turnover.
These sides will not be close this season, but in this opening-night rivalry spot, taking on Toronto's heavy -300 price tag is not an appealing bet.
Montreal will look to play a simple game road game and avoid critical mistakes while capitalizing on the Leafs' breakdowns.
Toronto plays a possession-based style under Sheldon Keefe, particularly in the offensive zone. That type of play looks beautiful when it works, but can turn ugly quickly if everyone isn't in rhythm.
This game is priced at +440 to finish tied after regulation, which is my favorite way to attack this opening-night spot from a side perspective. This is a great number for what should be a closely-fought matchup, and that makes this a fun sweat in a contest with an expected close scoreline.
Josh Anderson to score anytime at +350 is another quality look in this matchup. He's roasted Toronto consistently in his tenure with the Canadiens, and he'll play in a favorable spot on the top line.
The Canadiens' implied team total of 2.40 is a touch low for my liking as well, which is important when considering betting a player from that opposing side to score anytime.
The Picks: Regulation Tie +440 | Josh Anderson Anytime Goalscorer +350
