Canucks vs. Rangers Odds
| Canucks Odds | +125 |
| Rangers Odds | -150 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -110o / -110u |
Two of the league's best will meet at Madison Square Garden Monday as the New York Rangers host the Vancouver Canucks. Both sides have played to dominant records based on a foundation of detailed defensive play, and have their respective coaches as Jack Adams Award betting favorites as a result.
Let's break down this matchup and dive into a Canucks vs. Rangers preview and pick.
Vancouver Canucks
The debate over how good the Canucks really are continues to rage on in the hockey world. Their current PDO (save percentage plus shooting percentage) of 104.1 would finish as the second-highest mark in NHL history. They have scored 21.75 goals above expected, which paces the league by a wide margin. Those marks illustrate a case for some negative regression, but that doesn't mean the Canucks aren't still a really strong side.
On the positive side of things, the Canucks +47 goal differential is the best mark in the league by 13. They also lead the league in regulation wins. Both of those stats make a huge case for legitimacy, even if an abnormally high shooting percentage has been a big part of it.
It was no secret that head coach Rick Tocchet would preach defensive accountability in his first full season with the Canucks. That strength continues to be notable to the eye, and over last 30 days (13 games), their xGA/60 of 2.85 ranks sixth in the league.
Vancouver's strong defensive play has helped the high level displayed from both goaltending options to shine through, resulting in a fourth-best 2.59 goals against per game. Playing at full health has helped Thatcher Demko prove he is still one of the best goalies in the game. He owns a +12.3 GSAx and .916 save percentage across 28 appearances, and is probable to start Monday.
Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser have consistently performed like legitimate top forwards this season. The bottom six has shined and continues to benefit from players being slotted into proper roles. Tocchet has found ways to get the most of role players such as Dakota Joshua, Conor Garland and Sam Lafferty. Pius Suter is paying off expectations, and looks to be a strong pickup as most sharper analysts projected.
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New York Rangers
Peter Laviolette and the Rangers are telling a similar story to that of Tocchet and the Canucks. It was far more predictable they would be a top side this season though, which is why Laviolette is still priced at +700 to win the Jack Adams compared to Tocchet's +200.
While the Rangers have taken steps forward in terms of their defensive play under Laviolette compared to previous years with this current roster core, they are still far from a powerhouse at even strength. Over the last 10 games, they have played to a 49.78 xGF%.
The second line of Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck and Alexis Lafrenière is the only forward unit which has offered convincing play at even strength recently. But as we have seen in previous seasons, the Rangers are capable of turning modest even-strength play into an excellent record because of their goaltending and special teams strengths. Their 29.7% power-play success rate ranks first league wide, and their penalty kill ranks fifth at 84.4%.
Igor Shesterkin has trended into top form after a slow start to the season, and now owns a +8 GSAx and .908 save percentage in 24 appearances. Since Jonathan Quick started Saturday in Montreal, it is safe to assume Shesterkin gets the start here.
Canucks vs. Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Canucks continue to support one of the league's best goaltenders with excellent defensive play. Even if they are due for some regression on their sky-high finishing rates, this is still a legitimate top side.
The Rangers have put forth a similarly excellent goals against average due to strong play in front of goal, and with Shesterkin back in top form, they have the goalie to match Demko.
The Canucks should be able to play to their underdog price at even strength here versus a Rangers team that continues to produce league average results at five-on-five. The Rangers dominant power play taking on a below average Canucks penalty kill unit is a concern, but a modest one considering the prices on this matchup.
After factoring in home-ice advantage, I still can't agree with the Rangers being a -140 favorite here. Backing the Canucks at anything better than +115 provides value.
Pick: Canucks ML +120 (Play to +115)
