Capitals vs. Penguins Odds
| Capitals Odds | +154 |
| Penguins Odds | -184 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -130 / +106 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Capitals vs. Penguins on Tuesday, January 2, including NHL picks and predictions.
Generational talents Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby will renew their rivalry Tuesday in a crucial matchup.
The Capitals enter slightly ahead of the Penguins on points percentage, and they have the inside track on the final wild-card berth as a result.
Washington's lead has dwindled over the last 10 games, though, thanks to a 4-3-3 run. Meanwhile, the Penguins' 7-2-1 stretch has allowed them to gain significant ground.
Here's my Capitals vs. Penguins preview and betting pick.
Washington Capitals
Even in the midst of a four-game losing skid, the Capitals enter this matchup ranked 14th in the league on points percentage at .588.
Few handicappers, analysts or modelers would rank them anywhere near that, however, as their greatest strength has simply been hanging around in close matchups.
Ovechkin has put up just 21 points in 34 games, yet is tied for the team lead in points with Dylan Strome. Evgeny Kuznetsov has put up only 11 points, while T.J. Oshie has essentially been a complete non-factor.
When you consider how stale the team's offensive play has been, it's a wonder this team is sniffing the playoffs, and that has been quite a common contention.
New head coach Spencer Carbery has done an excellent job of enforcing well-structured team play and allowing his modest lineup a chance to succeed. He has allowed young talents such as Connor McMichael and Aliaksei Protas a chance to shine, and he is clearly helping development by bringing strong attention to detail in the defensive zone.
Since Dec. 1, the Capitals rank sixth in expected goals against per 60 at 2.92. They are still generating less at the other end, however, and that seems to simply be the makeup of the current roster with none of the historically strong offensive stars able to make a difference at this stage in their careers.
Carbery to media in NY: “At the end of the day, we have to start scoring 5-on-5, if you’re going to be quality team in this league. We can defend, we can check, we’re detailed, we’re organized. But you got to score…and we just don’t have that right now.” #ALLCAPS
— Tarik El-Bashir (@Tarik_ElBashir) December 28, 2023
This is about as accurate of an assessment of a team a coach could make. The frustration for Carbery is warranted, because the offensive struggles seem to be more of a personnel factor as opposed to coaching malpractice.
With Charlie Lindgren injured, we should count on Darcy Kuemper starting Tuesday. Kuemper has played to a -3.3 GSAx and .892 save % this season, which are certainly disappointing marks relative to his potential.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins looked to be a team that was due for better results early on based upon a strong underlying profile, as well as the obvious logic that they would not have a historically bad power play all season long.
That take has been proven true recently, as they have put up a 7-1-1 record, with a 58.21 xGF% in those nine matchups.
With Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell back in the mix, the top six looks far more formidable, and they should be able to produce offense at an above-average rate both at even strength and on the power play moving forward.
Most notably, the Penguins have actually defended far better than they are being credited this season. They have allowed only 2.63 goals against per game, which is the sixth-lowest mark in the entire league. That mark might come as a surprise considering the way this team continues to be covered as a side with weak defensive play.
Tristan Jarry has played like a legitimate No. 1 goaltender and is expected to get the start Tuesday. He owns a +10.0 GSAx and .916 save % across 24 games played.
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Capitals vs. Penguins
Betting Pick & Prediction
Washington's greatest asset has been its ability to defend, and therefore find ways to collect points in low-event contests. It has little in the way of true offensive star power at this point, and Carbery has employed this style of hockey as a result. We should expect the Capitals to play to their defensive strengths here, and look to make this a tight-checking slog.
The Penguins have defended quite well over the last several weeks and are capable of winning that type of contest. They are generating a substantial amount of looks at the other end, but my thinking is the Capitals are capable of suppressing the Penguins' offense to an extent.
This spot has significant meaning in the standings, and he is certainly more than just an average game of 82. We should expect a sharply contested game, which can also lend itself to lower score-lines.
Betting the Under 6 at anything better than -125 presents value. The Capitals hold some value starting at +155, which is less widely available, based upon their ability to create coin-flip-type contests
Pick: Under 6 (-120 at bet365) | Play to -125
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