NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Coyotes-Flyers (Monday, February 12)

Monday, Feb. 12

7 p.m. ET

ESPN+

Coyotes Odds	+128
Flyers Odds	-154
Over / Under	6 -102 / -115

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about the Arizona Coyotes vs. Philadelphia Flyers on Monday, February 12 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.

Just as everybody began to predict John Tortorella's Flyers would fall out of the playoff picture, they have responded with three straight wins out of the All-Star break, and have stretched their lead in the playoff race to six points over the Islanders.

Oddsmakers still aren't entirely convinced, as they make the Flyers only -155 favorites at home over a struggling Coyotes side that has played to a record of just 8-13-4 on the road.

That being said, let's get to my Coyotes vs. Flyers pick.

Arizona Coyotes

The Coyotes early season success made for a lovable story, but their current five-game skid has all but ended any hopes of a shocking playoff berth. They're eight points back of the Blues for the final spot with just one game in hand, and will likely end up as a seller at the trade deadline.

Both losses since the All-Star break have come in heartbreaking fashion, particularly Saturday's overtime defeat to the Predators.

With Barrett Hayton back in the mix, the Coyotes offer a more convincing unit down the middle, and will hope his presence can help the team own somewhat more of the play at even strength. Hayton skated with Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley Saturday, and the unit owned a 65.2% expected goal rating at even strength.

Guenther could garner a larger role down the stretch for a team lacking offensive upside, especially if some other pieces get traded away at the deadline.

The other concern for the Coyotes of late has been shaky play in goal from Connor Ingram, who was a major reason for their surprisingly strong start to the campaign. Karel Vejmelka has been confirmed as the Coyotes starter for this game. His -2.0 GSAx and .898 save percentage in 21 appearances this season are clear disappointments based upon his priors, but he was sharp Friday stopping 28-of-28 shots versus Vegas.

Philadelphia Flyers

Over the past 10 games, the Flyers own an expected goal rating of 51.24%, which suggests they are still playing a high level brand of hockey. Their roster looks legitimately solid, and the top-six has far more talent than most seem to acknowledge.

Morgan Frost continues to play at a high level and is a true top-six forward at the NHL level. The same can be said for Joel Farabee, who's 2.88 points per 60 ranks 54th among those who have skated over 200 minutes at even strength this season.

Sean Couturier is back to being a true number one center, and there's no evidence to say he wouldn't have bounced back in differing circumstances playing at full-health. He has strong support on the wings from Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett as the trio compiles a quality top unit that can keep other Eastern superstars in check.

Tortorella deserves a ton of credit for instilling a much better culture and for getting the most from a number of skaters of the defensive end. He's the greatest reason for the Flyers' success, but it seems like the talent on the roster also continues to be underrated.

Samuel Ersson has been confirmed as the Flyers starter for this matchup. He has played to a 4.8 GSAx and .903 save percentage across 27 games played, and is still loosely in the Calder conversation as a result.

Coyotes vs. Flyers

Betting Pick & Prediction

Both of these teams have displayed improved form out of the break, though it feels like the Coyotes haven't received credit for their two respectable losses.

I lean toward the Flyers if forced to bet a side, but I don't have much conviction to lay -155.

Backing Konecny or Tippett to record Over 3.5 shots on goal will be the most popular prop bets from this matchup, and I'm not going to talk anybody out of those numbers considering the Flyers project to record 34 shots on goal.

However, my favorite bet actually lies with backing a Coyote. Guenther is priced at -120 to record only two shots on goal. Guenther's greatest asset is his shot, which nobody would dispute. That's why he sets up on the left side of the Coyotes' top powerplay unit and looks for one-timers, which will always result in lots of shot attempts.

His 15.95 shot attempts per 60 ranks third on the Coyotes, and if he can continue getting more ice-time, his shots on goal average should rise. Guenther played well Saturday against Nashville, and a similar performances should command more minutes tonight.

Betting Guenther to record Over 1.5 shots on goal at -120 provides value, and anything better than -130 is a play for me.

Pick: Dylan Guenther Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-120 at FanDuel) | Play to -130

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