Coyotes vs. Stars Odds
| Coyotes Odds | +360 |
| Stars Odds | -500 |
| Over/Under | 6 (+100 / -120) |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
The Dallas Stars won their gigantic showdown with the Vegas Golden Knights last night. Now, Dallas has the opportunity to cap off its return to the NHL postseason by gaining a single point versus the lowly Arizona Coyotes.
Arizona snapped its 10-game losing streak last night in Minnesota, posting a shocking 5-3 result in an arena where few teams have found much success this season.
Can the Coyotes hang around as another gigantic underdog on Wednesday, or instead will we witness the Stars officially book a return to the postseason at home?
Arizona Coyotes
Arizona finally broke through with another victory on Tuesday, and its 5-3 win was a stunning result for many. The Coyotes were priced as massive underdogs at +425, and the game total was set at 6.5.
Consistent with what we have frequently observed over a massive sample size from Arizona, yesterday's game was was higher-scoring. During the Coyotes' previous 26 games, Arizona and its opponents have averaged 7.15 combined goals, and overs have gone 14-9-3.
The expected goals score of 4.02-to-3.46 last night suggested another high-scoring affair was in order — and that was exactly what we saw. Now, the Coyotes must contend against a lower-tempo team in Dallas … but I still cannot see the logic in this line opening at 5.5 rather than 6.
The 5.5-goal opener is especially perplexing, because Harri Sateri has been confirmed as the Coyotes' starting goaltender. Sateri has struggled badly in his first four NHL games, as evidenced by his -6.2 goals saved above expected rating and .822 save percentage.
Dallas Stars
Jake Oettinger stopped 33 of 35 shots faced prior to the shootout last night. He then held the Knights to zero goals on seven attempts to seal the deal in a massive result for the Stars. Dallas now has the opportunity to clinch on home-ice, where it has dominated with a 26-10-3 record.
The Stars have not been dominant defensively by any means — and the team has not improved significantly down the stretch. Dallas has allowed 3.8 goals per game during its last five games, with an xGA/60 of 3.38.
Nonetheless, that likely won't be a concern facing Sateri and the Coyotes, who have allowed a league-worst xGA/60 mark throughout April and the league's third-most goals overall (3.78). Those marks could be even worse without the services of Scott Wedgewood — who will now likely earn the start for Dallas.
Wedgewood was the best of Arizona's options in net for much of the year and has fared well behind a better Stars team.
Coyotes vs. Stars Pick
I understand the logical argument that Wednesday's game total could stay below the Coyotes' very high totals of late due to the Stars' slower tempo. But it's still difficulty to imagine a result that does not ultimately end with six or more goals on the board.
The same is true regarding my thoughts on Dallas as a side. Arizona has played to a couple of scrappier results of late, and obviously a great one last night in Minnesota, but it's hard me to see the Stars not finding the win here.
Dallas found the tougher result in last night's critical win over Vegas, and I believe we will see them come out with a ton of energy at home to pay off the official return to the postseason in front of the home crowd.
Harri Sateri has struggled badly, while Scott Wedgewood has been very solid since arriving in Dallas. It is fitting that we may witness Wedgewood get an important result over the Coyotes here.
There is sufficient value here to parlay the game to go over the low total of 5.5 and for the Stars to win outright at a combined price of +120. That price suggests we are very profitable if we are hitting at 50%, and I feel we have that here.
Picks: Over 5.5 / Dallas Stars Moneyline Parlay +120 (Play with 5.5 to +110)
