Coyotes vs. Wild Odds
| Coyotes Odds | +425 |
| Wild Odds | -600 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (-110/-110) |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
Minnesota's chase for home-ice advantage in its first-round playoff matchup will continue on Tuesday, as it hosts the lowly Arizona Coyotes, who enter this one having dropped 10 consecutive contests.
Arizona is yet again playing as a near-record breaking underdog in this contest. The host Minnesota is skating as nearly -600 favorites.
Where can we find some value in a hockey game with a line like that?
Coyotes Battling Canadiens at Bottom of NHL
Arizona is working on a historically bad season, with only the 2016-17 Avs offering a worse year over a complete 82-game schedule in the post-lockout era.
However, the Coyotes are still neck-and-neck with the Canadiens for last place, which is very fitting for this 2021-22 season. The parity between playoff and non-playoff teams drop off significantly this year.
However, the Coyotes did claim a point on Saturday from the Blues in a game that featured one of the most surprising comebacks I've ever seen.
The third-period surge was highlighted by the first NHL tally from Bokondji Imama, which certainly seemed to inspire some energy for a team that certainly does not often have a lot to cheer about.
But consistent with what we have seen for much of this season, Arizona has allowed a ton of goals against, which has been the main causation toward its notably high game totals.
Coyotes games have averaged 7.09 combined goals in a massive sample of 25 games, with matchups going 13-9-3 to the over during that time.
Oddsmakers have remained reluctant to push totals to the mark of 7 for a lot of teams all season long, and the notable uptick in scoring league-wide has unsurprisingly hit the Coyotes' goals against totals hard.
In the month of April, Arizona has allowed a league-high 3.85 xGA/60 rate and has seen the goaltending tandem of Karel Vejmelka and Harri Sateri allow more than the high expected mark suggests.
We should see Vejmelka get the start here, looking to better his -20.2 goals saved above expected mark and .900 save % throughout 50 games this season.
Wild On Torrid Pace
The chase for home-ice advantage between St. Louis and Minnesota has become quite something, with both teams posting utterly ridiculous records throughout the season's final quarter and neither giving an inch.
The Wild have played to a 19-2-4 mark over the last 25 games, and still haven't been able to seal the deal.
Minnesota is playing a far more up-tempo style than we are used to seeing it traditionally play this season. The Wild have generated a ridiculous amount of offense over the last nine games, with a 4.77 goals for per game mark over that time.
The Wild are playing very sound defense, as well, but this has clearly become a group that's greatest defensive asset is its aggressiveness to drive play in the other direction and create in the offensive zone.
This style of play going head-to-head with St. Louis will be a big part of what makes that series can't miss hockey, and one that I am very keen to watch next week.
This style has led the Wild to a ton of higher-scoring contests themselves of late, with game totals averaging 7.63 combined goals over the last 11.
Cam Talbot will likely get the start in this one, and he has played to a -5.1 goals saved above expected rating with a .911 save % throughout 48 games played this season.
Coyotes vs. Wild Pick
Backing the over in each of these team's contests has remained highly profitable over the last stretch of the season, and I think there is a good chance we see yet another high-scoring game on Tuesday in St. Paul.
That scoring will most likely come from a big offensive outburst from Minnesota, but we have seen this Coyotes offense show some scrappier efforts of late, as well.
I see more value backing the game total to go over 6.5 at -125 than a big Wild win, but certainly playing both together — or the Wild to go over their team total — could be strong options, as well.
The gap between the elite teams in the NHL and the bottom feeders has been as wide this season as we have seen in ages, but I am still not entirely sure I'm ready to back a -2.5 puckline.
I would still prefer to do that compared to backing the Coyotes, though.
Pick: Over 6.5 -125 (Play to -135)
