Flames vs. Coyotes Odds
| Flames Odds | -125 |
| Coyotes Odds | +105 |
| Over / Under | 6 -115 / -105 |
Despite not offering entirely compelling play, the Flames and Coyotes remain closely entrenched in the Western Conference wild-card race. It is unlikely both teams sneak in, which makes this a pivotal contest.
The Coyotes have been excellent at Mullett Arena this season (13-8-0), while the Flames have struggled on the road (8-11-4). Even still, the Flames are a -120 favorite, so let's get to my prediction for Flames vs. Coyotes.
Calgary Flames
The Flames continue to loosely hang around the wild-card picture, but will realistically likely sell Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin prior to the deadline, barring an excellent stretch of results. Their 18-18-5 record slightly undersells their play from an analytical perspective, but it is worth noting that the Flames completely underperformed their analytical expectations last season as well.
Their style of play has changed under new coach Ryan Huska as they've generated 3.66 xGF/60 over the past 15 games, which ranks sixth-highest league wide. They have allowed 3.17 xGA/60, which is right at league average. Those marks indicate that they are playing a high event style of hockey, and are generating a lot more offensively than most observers might expect.
The Flames enter this matchup with zero skaters on the IR, and should have top goaltender Jacob Markstrom in goal. Markstrom has played to a 10.3 GSAx and .908 save percentage in 24 appearances. Keep in mind the gap in form between Markstrom and backup Dan Vladar has been gigantic this season, so if Vladar is confirmed as the Flames starter, these odds should change.
Arizona Coyotes
The Coyotes continue to do just enough to hang around in the Western Conference, despite a concerning stretch of play offensively. They own a 7-6-0 record over the past 30 days, yet have generated just 2.46 goals per game in that span. They have played to a 45.54% expected goals rating, which suggests even a 7-6-0 mark might be generous.
With Jason Zucker out of the lineup due to suspension, the Coyotes recalled 2021 ninth overall pick Dylan Guenther from AHL Tucson. Guenther is a pure goalscorer who features an electric shot that definitely plays at the NHL level. Those strengths made him a logical call-up given the Coyotes current offensive struggles.
Dylan Guenther tied the game with an absolute RIP. 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/Re1AEnlQ0O
— NHL (@NHL) January 10, 2024
He has scored in both games since being recalled and has been one of the more notable skaters for Arizona in each outing. It makes to see that he is set to remain on the top powerplay unit in tonight's matchup, as well as on the third line alongside Logan Cooley.
Arizona has confirmed it will start Karel Vejmelka, who is now playing to his potential after a surprisingly poor start to the campaign. Vejmelka owns a 2.1 GSAx and .901 save percentage in 18 appearances this season.
Flames vs. Coyotes
Betting Pick & Prediction
The prices on sides in this matchup look fair. The Flames can be viewed as a slightly better side at the moment, but not enough to back them as road favorites with the Coyotes boasting a legitimate home-ice advantage this season.
My favorite play is backing Guenther to score in a third straight contest. Andre Tourigny is aware of Guenther's offensive upside and kept him on the Coyotes elite top powerplay unit at today's morning skate. He will also remain with a solid playmaker at even strength.
The Flames are a middle of the pack side in terms of goal prevention, so not a bad opponent to keep riding Guenther with.
Guenther is a pure goal scorer who can potentially add some much needed offensive punch for Arizona. He has earned strong usage for the time being, and as long he remains in these roles, betting him to score anytime at +370 will provide value.
