Flames vs. Panthers Odds
| Flames Odds | +130 |
| Panthers Odds | -150 |
| Over/Under | 6 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
After a well-timed restart to the season, the Calgary Flames have snapped back into their dominant form with back-to-back wins over Seattle and Chicago.
Calgary now heads to Sunrise, Fla. for a much stiffer test against the Florida Panthers, who have 17 wins from 20 home games this season.
Calgary Checks All the Boxes
We knew that the Flames would improve their defensive play in a full season under Darryl Sutter, but the team's offensive success has been surprising.
The Flames score the 10th-most goals per game (3.2) and create the seventh-most expected goals per 60 minutes (2.61) at 5-on-5 this season. While I still believe this team's defensive play will remain its best asset, the strong offensive play does seem legitimate.
Calgary's top line of Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk continue to dominate and have earned their way into the conversation for best line in the entire NHL. Gaudreau, Lindholm and Tkachuk were terrific against Chicago, posting 6 points combined and — once again — allowing very few chances against in their own zone, with a 63.3% expected goals rate. That number is impressive, but mor importantly, inline with the trio's 64.2% xG rate over 363 minutes in 2021/22.
The team's No. 2 line, which features Dillon Dube playing in between Andrew Mangiapane and Milan Lucic, also looked strong in Chicago and will need to replicate that effort against Florida's terrific middle six.
Jacob Markstrom will likely get the start against his former team. The 31-year-old netminder has been terrific this season, posting a .930 save percentage and a +9.6 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in 23 games.
Florida Has Been Dominant at Home
The Panthers continued their dominance on home ice with a run-of-the-mill win over a heavily depleted Canadiens team on Saturday. Florida is now averaging 4.4 goals per game at FLA Live Arena and pace the NHL in shots on goal per game at home.
Florida's tremendously deep up front with two superstars in Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, but it's the support behind the two dynamic Cats that has this team scoring the lights out.
The same formula holds true on the back-end with Mackenzie Weegar and Aaron Ekblad playing as one of the league's best pairings on defense. Ekblad and Weegar are a perfect fit for the team's up-tempo style, while the remaining four blueliners all grade out fine for their respective roles.
Florida will likely go with Sergei Bobrovsky on Tuesday night, setting up a great goaltending matchup. Bobrovsky has skated to a .918 SV% and a +11.6 GSAx in 21 games this campaign.
Flames vs. Panthers Pick
To me there isn't much to indicate Florida's ridiculously fun and up-tempo style of play is going to change anytime soon, so this should be quite the watch.
The Panthers continue to the league's most high-event hockey on home-ice, with the Over cashing in 14 of 20 games at FLA Live Arena. The talent on hand suggests this trend should continue as even Florida's defenders are doing their best work in the offensive zone.
Florida has allowed 12.83 high-danger chances against in its last five games at home, but the Cats more than make up for it by generating a deluge of chances for themselves.
Calgary's biggest strength is its defense, but this team has shown it can find the back of the net consistently and should be able to help this score tick above the total.
Backing the Over when Florida is at home is almost an auto-bet at this point and — despite a strong goaltending matchup — I think there's value on backing this game to feature more than six goals, even if it is a square play.
As for the side, I think the current odds create more value on the Flames, but for now I like the Over 6 as the best way to play this game and would bet it up to -140.
Pick: Over 6 (-140 or better)
