Maple Leafs vs. Flyers Odds, Pick, Prediction: Take the Home Underdog

Maple Leafs vs. Flyers Odds

The Toronto Maple Leafs had their five-game winning streak snapped in embarrassing fashion on Monday night, falling to the Los Angeles Kings, 5-1, as -275 favorites.

Toronto now heads south to Philadelphia to take on the Flyers, who are off to a 6-2-2 start and have taken points in five of their last six contests. Toronto is a slight road favorite, however.

Toronto's Defense Is Leaky

The Maple Leafs come into this game winners in five of their last six, but they've struggled to a 1-3 record away from Scotiabank Arena and their lone road win came in overtime against a desperately bad Chicago Blackhawks team. Four games isn't a big enough sample, but it's something to keep an eye on as we move deeper into the campaign.

The real red flag for this team is its defense. It looked like Toronto's blueline started to turn a corner last season, but the Leafs have taken a step back so far in 2021/22. Toronto ranks 25th in high-danger chances allowed, 19th in expected goals against and 23rd in goals allowed per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 through the first month of the season.

The saving grace for the Buds is that their No. 1 goaltender, Jack Campbell, has been fantastic, posting a .929 save percentage (SV%) and a +6.3 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in 11 games. Whether or not Campbell can keep up this output for the long haul remains to be seen as the Leafs will be without their 1B goalie, Petr Mrazek, for the next four weeks.

The Toronto media machine was all over Toronto's big stars in the beginning of the season, but Mitch Marner, John Tavares, Auston Matthews and William Nylander have been a force over the last two weeks. Still, this offense has underwhelmed relative to expectations, scoring just 2.54 goals (27th) per game so far.

Is Philadelphia Bouncing Back?

The Flyers were a disaster last season, but they've come out of the gates quite strong this time around. Claude Giroux has led the way with 12 points (five goals, seven assists) and Cam Atkinson (six goals, two assists) has been terrific in his first 10 games in the Orange and Black.

Philadelphia is currently scoring 3.2 goals per game (10th), but their underlying metrics on offense aren't all that impressive, which does suggest they may regress a bit. The Flyers currently rank 15th in expected goals for and 25th in high-danger chances created per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.

After boasting the worst goaltending in the NHL last season, the Flyers have to be very encouraged by Carter Hart's performance thus far in '21/22. The 23-year-old has a .926 SV% and a +5.76 GSAx in seven games. And wouldn't you know, Martin Jones has also been solid for the Flyers in his first three games in the City of Brotherly Love.

While the offense and goaltending are humming, the defense in Philadelphia could stand to improve a bit. The Flyers are the fifth-worst team at preventing high-danger scoring chances in the NHL thus far.

Flyers vs. Leafs Pick

I think the Flyers are a live underdog in this one.

While Philadelphia's defensive issues are a bit scary against the top of this Toronto roster, the Leafs have relied way too much on their first two lines and that lack of depth can get to them. Additionally, this Flyers offense shouldn't have too much trouble getting Grade A scoring chances themselves, which could turn this game into a goaltending battle.

Perhaps last year that would be a no-go with the Flyers, but their netminders are off and running this season and should be able to play with Campbell and the Leafs.

I view this game as pretty much a coin flip, so I'll take Philadelphia at +110 or better.

Pick: Philadelphia Flyers +110 or better