NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Flyers vs. Predators (March 27)

Flyers vs. Predators Odds

Down in Music City, the Nashville Predators host the Philadelphia Flyers. It’ll be the final time these teams meet, as the Flyers stood victorious earlier this month 5-4. 

Since trading Claude Giroux, the Flyers have looked pretty good, and went 2-1. The season is essentially over for Philly, but they’ll look to make the most out of the remaining 18 games left

The Preds have opened a lot of people’s eyes this year, as they firmly planted themselves in the playoff hunt. They currently hold the first Wild Card spot and have gone 6-4 in their last 10 including losing their last two. Let's take a look at today's matchup and see where we can find value on either side.

Philadelphia Flyers

It’s been a hard season for the Flyers as they’ve been dealt a rough hand. They’ve lost their captain in Giroux to a trade, and will not have key players like Sean Couturier, Scott Laughton, Travis Konecny, Ryan Ellis, and Samuel Morin to injury. With that being said, they’ll heavily rely on veterans like Cam Atkinson and James van Riemsdyk, and youngsters like Joel Farabee and Travis Sanheim.

Philly is one of the poorest teams on the offensive end. Scoring a second-worst 2.55 goals per game, the Flyers are also among the worst in expected goals with a 44.96 xGF%. Not only that but they don’t create many high danger chances, and the power play is the worst in the league at 13.2%

With their struggles on the offensive side, there’s also struggles on the defensive end. Allowing an 8th worst 3.43 goals per game, they allow the 9th most high danger chances as well. The PK is a weakness too, with only a 75.3% success rate.

Youngster Carter Hart has recovered from a historically bad sophomore season last year. Hart has proven to be a reliable guy in net, despite the Flyers position in the standings. He’s coming in with a .910 SV% and a +2.1 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected).

Backup Martin Jones hasn’t been bad either. The veteran has a .903 SV% and a -2.0 GSAx. Jones just played in Thursday’s win against St. Louis, so I see Hart taking the net.

Nashville Predators

Nashville has received exceptional production from their top guys. Roman Josi is having a historic offensive year for a defenseman, while Matt Duchene and Filip Forsberg are both averaging over a point per game.

Ryan Johansen has bounced back this season after two disappointing years. They will be without some key pieces on their blue line, as Dante Fabbro and Mark Borowiecki will be missing.

Historically, the Preds have never been one to post big offensive flurries. This year, it’s been mildly different, as they average a decent amount of goals per game (3.23) and a 50.1 xGF%. With the man advantage Nashville is one of the top teams, as they score on the power play almost 25% of the time.

The defensive side is always the Preds’ bread and butter. Nashville always does a wonderful job at limiting opponents chances by allowing 2.84 goals per game, and not letting teams create high danger chances against them. It is a surprise though, that the penalty kill isn’t as successful as one might think – with only a 79.6% success rate.

Juuse Saros has been a premier goaltender all season, and should be a Vezina finalist this season. He’s played about 90% of the starts this year posting an elite .921 SV% as well as a +20.9 GSAx. Since backup David Rittich played this past Tuesday, I would expect Saros to take the net.

Flyers vs. Predators Pick

Certainly the Predators are a quality team and not only defend to the point of frustration, but they have one of the best goalies in the league. The Flyers may have come out on top in their last matchup, but Giroux was in the mix, and the game was in Philly.

The Flyers have one of the worst road records in the league, and this will be held in front of a raucous crowd in Nashville. It’s also important to note that the Preds have a lot to play for to keep their playoff spot.

I think it’d be best not to overthink it here and grab -1.5 at this price, because I don’t see the odds getting better. 

Pick: Nashville Predators -1.5 (-105)