Flyers vs. Wild Odds
| Flyers Odds | -114 |
| Wild Odds | -105 |
| Over / Under | 6 -105 / -115 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Flyers vs. Wild on Friday, Jan. 12 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Wild's turnaround under coach John Hynes has hit a snag, as they have lost six of last seven due to a nightmare injury situation. Things have gotten particularly bad this week with 4-0 and 7-2 defeats versus the Stars, and they will look to respond here versus more manageable competition.
Philadelphia's has taken a step backwards as well recently, albeit more modest. Over the last 10 they own a record of 3-4-3, but did play an excellent contest Wednesday in Jamie Drysdale's debut with the team.
Philadelphia Flyers
John Tortorella's gritty, hard working side has become one of the more lovable stories in the NHL this season. They are greatly overachieving expectations, which has Tortorella among the favorites for Coach of the Year.
Often times when we see an overachieving side they have either received incredible goaltending, or been on the right side of an abnormal amount of lucky wins. That was not the case early on for Philadelphia, but their play has dropped off to an extent of late and correlates with collecting nine of the last 20 points available.
In the last 10 games the Flyers own a 49.53 xGF%, and have allowed 29.88 shots against per 60 minutes of play. Jamie Drysdale was brilliant in his Flyers debut, and will offer a notable upgrade on the back end compared to some of the skaters receiving minutes.
Carter Hart has been confirmed as tonight's starter. He has played to a +3.3 GSAx and .911 save % across 23 games played this season.
Minnesota Wild
The Wild's recent losing skid has drawn a significant response in the media, particularly Wednesday's 7-2 defeat in highly touted prospect Jesper Wallstedt's debut. They have been outscored 28-12 while losing six of the last seven games, and own 40.04% expected goal rating.
The Wild's IR situation is downright horrific, and is an excuse that holds particularly strong merit considering they had been cruising along under John Hynes prior to all of the injuries. Playing without Kirill Kaprizov, Jared Spurgeon, Filip Gustavsson, Jonas Brodin, among others has taken its toll.
They have played a notably tough schedule over this slump, which is worth considering from a handicapping perspective as their value has plummeted. They played both of the Stars and Jets twice, who are top five teams in the league. They did manage to win the only time in the last seven games they were favoured as well.
What is left of the roster still has the potential to produce marginally better results than we have seen so far though, and the injury situation is not as bad as it has been in a number of recent contests. Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Foligno, and Ryan Hartman all missed some recent contests, but should all play tonight.
Marc-Andre Fleury has been confirmed as the Wild starter for this game. He owns a -6.4 GSAx and .892 save % in 19 games this season, and is likely to continue putting up below average numbers moving forward.
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Flyers vs. Wild
Betting Pick & Prediction
Early on in this slump there was value fading Minnesota, and I consistently put my opinion out there that the true value of its roster shortage was not being priced correctly. The current prices on this game make me believe the market has caught up though.
At today's opening numbers the Wild were slightly overvalued at open, but the current numbers have corrected and -110 looks fair. Philadelphia's play has taken a step backwards too, and the Wild have exhibited some home ice advantage. Keep in mind a game in Dallas is about as tough as it gets in the NHL this season, and that dreadful loss is influencing the numbers here.
This should be a spot where the Wild respond. If they do they will need the big names remaining in the lineup to make a statement, and that is a small reason why I want to target Matt Boldy tonight.
The more important logic is that Boldy should see big minutes in most game scripts tonight. He has averaged 20 minutes of ice time per game since Kaprizov's injury, and this should be a spot for coach John Hynes to ride with his best winger.
I'm not personally a believer in blindly throwing out game log data, as obviously the oddsmakers setting the prices are aware of that data. You need to be thinking about sustainability and causation when considering props, and I do believe those are factors working towards betting Boldy overs right now. He has gone over 3.5 shots on goal in four of seven games throughout this current roster situation, which is because of the adjusted usage and power play look the Wild are offering.
He was trending below what we should expect in terms of shot output all season, prior to a hot stretch under John Hynes. His adjusted usage and lack of productivity early on give us an opportunity to buy on Boldy to record over 3.5 shots on goal. Any price better than +115 is a bet for me.
Pick: Matt Boldy Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+125 | Play to +115)
