Golden Knights vs. Kraken Odds
| Kraken Odds | +115 |
| Golden Knights Odds | -140 |
| Over/Under | 5.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+, Hulu |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
Vegas will return home from a 2-2 eastern road swing to host a Seattle team that was embarrassed in falling 5-4 to the lowly Coyotes Saturday night.
The Kraken fell to 4-7-1 with the loss to the NHL's worst outfit, but will have a chance to make a big statement should they manage a victory in front of what is sure to be a raucous sin-city crowd.
Kraken Have Run Into Some Poor Luck
Sitting with a -8.54 goal differential above expected mark, the Kraken currently hold the league's fourth-biggest negative gap, which is somewhat to be expected given the makeup of the team. A number of pieces come in based off of play-driving numbers, and the roster offers little in terms of elite offensive finishers.
All numbers aside, it has been clear watching the Kraken that a number of losses have been quite unlucky and unlikely to be replicated given similar gameplay.
Goaltender Philipp Grubauer has been the biggest cause for concern in the early going for the Kraken, as you might expect for a team which has allowed 9.58 goals against above expected.
Grubauer has yet to find the form which found him nominated for the Vezina last season, posting an .886 save % and -8.2 goals saved above expected.
Goaltender's are certainly a guessing game, and playing for Seattle as opposed to an utterly dominant Avalanche team last season has had some effect I'm sure, but I still feel it's a very reasonable expectation to think Grubauer will stabilize to some extent moving forward considering his resume.
Golden Knights Continue To Battle Injuries
Vegas continue to scratch and claw for every point as it awaits the returns of several elite forwards in Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, William Karlsson and now Jack Eichel.
Ultimately a 6-6-0 record is not that bad when you consider how horrible the injury situation is, and how likely this group is to dominate when skating at full-strength later in the year.
The Western wild-card spots are unlikely to require too spectacular a record, which could be important to Vegas, as even a .500 record given the current play could realistically be somewhat of an overachievement, not that the team doesn't hold a valid excuse given the players not in the lineup.
The Knights own a -5 goal differential altogether — just one better than the cellar-dwelling Kraken — a 45.07 xGF%, and an absurdly high 3.31 xGA/60, the league's worst mark in the early going by a relatively big margin.
Robin Lehner has been very solid in the early going of the season, stopping 6.5 goals saved above expected, while owning a modest .919 save %, which is certainly a comment on the quality of shots he has faced in the early going.
Lehner will start with the Knights having played backup Laurent Brossoit Sunday against Detroit, and could realistically be the Knights' biggest perceived advantage given the current state of the roster against the Kraken.
Kraken vs. Golden Knights Pick
The Kraken have not been nearly as bad as their 4-7-1 record might have you believe, with their flurry of tough luck losses beginning on opening night against these very Knights when Chandler Stephenson's controversial kick-in goal was allowed to stand as the winner late in the third period, ruining an amazing three goal comeback from Seattle.
I'm sure a number of bettors will be licking their lips seeing a supposed powerhouse team in the Golden Knights priced somewhat closely at home against a team sitting 28th in the standings in the Kraken, but Seattle is due for better results, and have simply found ways to lose a lot of close games in which it deserved a better result.
Should the Kraken continue to drive play at similar rates, the results are bound to improve, and I feel that backing them as an underdog against a very shorthanded Knights team skating in their third contest in four nights holds some strong value.
Having backed Vegas Saturday, I can say that effort was certainly far from an oil painting against a Montreal team that has not generated much against hardly anyone this season. The Knights got the result they had coming the next night, taking a 5-2 loss to a developing Red Wings bunch.
Vegas hold the league's worst expected goal differential at -7.48, and I think it's very reasonable to expect Seattle to carry more of the play again here. If they can get some stops from Grubauer, who has simply been a let down in the early going, the Kraken will have a great chance to post a huge road victory over a division rival and therefore offer value at +115.
However I don't feel there is a rush to take that current price, as I expect the public to pile heavily on Vegas here, and I imagine you'll likely still find +115 closer to puck-drop, but quite possibly see better.
Pick: Seattle +115, Play to +105
