Golden Knights vs. Lightning Odds
| Golden Knights Odds | -105 |
| Lightning Odds | -114 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -106 / -114 |
Here's everything you need to know about Golden Knights vs. Lightning on Thursday, Dec. 21 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
At 15-13-5 the Lightning sit in 11th place in the NHL Eastern Conference in points percentage. That's a far cry from what fans have come to expect from the perennial powerhouse, and the main reason why is they have allowed goals at the fifth-highest rate in the league.
The Knights have followed up their Stanley Cup Championship with a dominant start to the season at 21-7-5. The big picture outlook remains excellent in Vegas, but for there are short-term concerns with Adin Hill and Logan Thompson both sidelined.
Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my Golden Knights vs. Lightning betting prediction.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Knights continue to put forth championship level play, and deserve to be power-rated as the top team in the NHL. They own a mark of a 7-2-1 over the last 10, and have put up a 58.8% expected goals rating over that period, which is the second-best mark in the league.
The Lightning themselves have illustrated in recent years that it is not necessarily worth it for contending teams to keep the pedal to the floor all 82 games. Finding the right balance of keeping the correct playing habits while also leaving something in reserve for the postseason is important in the NHL. Especially as the impact of finishing high in the standings is extremely marginal.
That will be part of the challenge for the Knights this season, who we know will arrive safely into the NHL playoffs barring serious injury concerns.
Offensively they continue to receive effectively balanced play from up and down the lineup, led by elite scoring threats in Jack Eichel and Mark Stone. Their 3.88 xGF/60 in the last 10 games ranks third league wide, and they have put up 4.30 goals per game where it counts.
As Adin Hill remains sidelined and Logan Thompson is day-to-day, we will likely see Jiri Patera start for Vegas Thursday. Patera has played to a .900 save % in 14 appearances in the AHL this season, as well as a .918 save % in four periods of NHL action.
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Tampa Bay Lightning
The deeper we get into this NHL season, the more it looks like Tampa Bay is getting some credit based on name power alone. The depth of its roster has been gutted due to the salary cap, and it continues to own a relatively modest underlying profile as a result.
The Lightning have played to a 46.93% expected goal rating over their last 10 games. They have faced a tough schedule overall in that period, but it is still clear to the eye that Jon Cooper's team is not the defensive stalwart we have come to expect.
They have now allowed 3.48 goals against per game this season.
That mark has not healed as much as you might expect since Andrei Vasilevskiy's return, which could be taken as another comment towards the idea that this team is not quite playing at the level we have come to expect.
Vasilevskiy has not been at his best, either. He owns a +1.3 GSAx and .904 save % in 11 appearances this season, but was sharp Tuesday in the Lightning's 6-1 victory over St. Louis.
Mikhail Sergachev is set to miss tonight's contest due to injury. He has struggled recently, but was averaging close to 24:00 of time on ice in the 10 games prior to injury.
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Golden Knights vs. Lightning
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Golden Knights are an interesting team to handicap for the time being. More than most elite sides it is difficult to predict what type of game you might see, and the level of urgency you might get from a team sitting on top of the league which has played so much hockey this calendar year. Grinding out ugly wins might not be overly enticing to the defending champs, and recently we have seen several notably high scoring.
Now their need for sharp defensive play will grow as they play in front a third-string goaltending option in Patera versus a Lightning team with meaningful offensive upside.
Whether those assumptions are entirely accurate or not, what we do know for a fact is that the Knights possess well above average scoring upside and that the Lightning have allowed a significantly above average amount of goals against this season.
A bet on the over makes sense considering the matchup and the way these sides have been trending. I would play over 6.5 at anything better than -110.
Pick: Over 6.5 -105 (Play to -110)
